Heat will lead to an outbreak of climate migration: 200 million people will move - ForumDaily
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Heat will lead to an outbreak of climate migration: 200 million people will move

К 2050 million people could move in 200 due to climate change, reports AP News.

Photo: Shutterstock

Climate change could push more than 200 million people to leave their homes over the next three decades and create migration hotspots if urgent action is not taken to reduce global emissions and close the development gap, the World Bank said in a report.

The second part of the Groundswell report, published on Monday, examined how the effects of slow climate change, such as water scarcity, declining crop yields and rising sea levels, could lead to millions of people referred to as "climate migrants" 2050 under three different scenarios, according to varying degrees of climate impact and development.

Согласно самому пессимистическому сценарию, с высоким уровнем выбросов и неравномерным развитием, в отчете прогнозируется, что до 216 миллионов человек будут перемещаться внутри своих стран в шести проанализированных регионах. Эти регионы — Латинская Америка; Северная Африка; К югу от Сахары; Восточная Европа и Центральная Азия; Южная Азия; и Восточная Азия и Тихий океан.

In the most climate-friendly scenario, with low emissions and inclusive sustainable development, 44 million people in the world could still be displaced from their homes.

Полученные данные «подтверждают способность климата стимулировать миграцию внутри стран», — сказала Вивиан Вей Чен Клемент, старший специалист Всемирного банка по изменению климата и один из авторов отчета.

The report does not address the short-term impacts of climate change, such as the effects of extreme weather events, and does not address climate migration across borders.

On the subject: 'Code red for humanity': UN releases report on catastrophic climate change

При наихудшем сценарии Африка к югу от Сахары — наиболее уязвимый регион из-за опустынивания, хрупкости береговых линий и зависимости населения от сельского хозяйства — станет местом наибольшего количества мигрантов, при этом до 86 миллионов человек будут перемещаться в пределах национальных границ.

However, North Africa is projected to have the largest share of climate migrants: 19 million people move, representing about 9% of its population, mainly due to increased water scarcity in northeastern Tunisia, northwestern Algeria, western and southern Morocco and in the central foothills of the Atlas, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is particularly affected by floods and crop failures, which account for nearly half of projected climate migrants, with 19,9 million people, including a growing number of women, moving in a pessimistic manner by 2050.

«Это наша гуманитарная реальность прямо сейчас, и мы обеспокоены тем, что ситуация будет еще хуже там, где уязвимость будет более острой», — сказал профессор Маартен ван Алст, директор Климатического центра Международного Красного Креста и Красного Полумесяца, который не участвовал в составление отчета.

Photo: Shutterstock

Many scientists say the world is no longer heading towards the worst-case emissions scenario. But even in a more moderate scenario, Van Aalst said many impacts are now happening faster than previously expected, "including the extreme events we are already facing and the potential impacts on migration and displacement."

While the impact of climate change on migration is not new, it is often part of a combination of factors pushing people to move and acts as a threat multiplier. People affected by conflict and inequality are also more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, as they have limited means to adapt.

«В глобальном масштабе мы знаем, что трое из четырех человек, которые переезжают, остаются внутри стран», — сказал д-р Канта Кумари Риго, ведущий специалист по окружающей среде Всемирного банка и соавтор отчета.

The report also warns that migration hotspots could emerge over the next decade and intensify by 2050. Planning is needed both in the areas where people will move and in the areas they leave to help those who stay.

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Recommended actions included achieving “net zero emissions by mid-century to have a chance to limit global warming to 1,5 ° C” and investing in development that is “green, sustainable and inclusive, in line with the Paris Agreement”.

Clement and Rigaud warned that a worst-case scenario is still plausible unless collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and invest in development is taken soon, especially in the next decade.

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