White Christmas: which states can snow on Christmas morning

There is a week left before Christmas - and meteorologists are already ready to talk about which states residents will wake up on the coming holiday morning surrounded by a winter fairy tale. Writes about this Weather.com.

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American meteorologists talk about white Christmas, when there is at least 25 inch (1 cm) of snow on the ground on the morning of December 2,5. This does not require snow on all holidays.

This year, the likelihood of a white Christmas is high in the mountainous West, close to the Canadian border in the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes, and in the wide swath of the inland northeast.

Much lesser chances of a white Christmas are in other parts of the Northeast, Midwest, Ohio Valley in Tennessee, and some of the lower elevations of the West.

No major snowstorms are expected east of the Rocky Mountains from December 18th until the first part of Christmas week. As the holidays approach, some parts of the Central and Eastern states are likely to experience colder weather. It's too early to tell if this could lead to significant snowfall.

How typical white Christmas is in the USA

You may be surprised to learn that outside of the Highlands, northern New England, and the extreme northern regions of the United States, there are not many areas where the probability of a white Christmas is greater than 50%.

The last two years are good examples of how sparse snow coverage can be on Christmas morning. Christmas 2019 was the second snowiest winter holiday in the continental US in the past 10 years, with just 28,1% of the continental US enjoying a white Christmas, according to an analysis by the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC). Two years ago, December 25 was the snowiest (after 2005) - only 24,6% of the territory of the 48 continental states was covered with snow.

The lack of it last year is partly due to the relatively mild conditions in most of the US in December 2019.

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There has also been much less snow in the past two years than in 2017, when just under half of the US was snowed on Christmas morning. Then the snow cover pleased, as expected, all northern regions, even reaching some parts of the Central Plains, Midwest and Northeast.

According to data collected by NOHRSC over 17 years, on average about 38% of the continental land area is covered with snow on Christmas Day. Since 2003, these percentages have varied greatly from year to year, from 21% in 2003 to a whopping 63% in the continental US in 2009.

Historic White Christmas Opportunities by Region of the USA

Let's look at various statistics about this phenomenon, including the annual probability, the number of such holidays in the historical records of each city, and the last white Christmas. All statistics and data are provided by the National Meteorological Service. The annual probability is based on the registration period for that location.

• Northeast

The maximum amount of snow in Albany (in 1966) and Buffalo, New York (in 2001) on Christmas morning was 19 inches (48,26 cm). In New York, up to 25 inches (1912 cm) of snow was observed on December 8 (in 20,32), and 7 inches (17,78 cm) was the maximum depth of snow in Washington (in 2009).

Last Christmas there was only an inch of snow in Syracuse, New York. Albany recorded only a trace of precipitation - it doesn't count as a white Christmas.

Burlington, Vermont, and Caribou, Maine, had more than 30 inches (76,2 cm) of snow on the ground last Christmas. In 2019, the Caribou experienced a white Christmas with 4 inches (10,16 cm) of precipitation, but Burlington did not, as they only had a trace of snow.

The record snow depth in Boston on Christmas morning was 11 inches (28), but Concord, New Hampshire measured up to 1995 inches (26). In 66, Concord had a white Christmas, but Boston did not.

• Midwest

The maximum snow depth for Christmas morning in Milwaukee was 25 inches - 63,5 cm (in 2000), and the record was recorded in Chicago: 17 inches - 43,18 cm (in 1951). The last white Christmas for both cities was in 2017.

With the exception of the northern Great Lakes, last year's December 25, only a small portion of the Midwest saw snow. One of the few places to see a white Christmas in 2019 was Marquette, Michigan, where two feet (61 cm) of snow fell.

The plains

The cities of Duluth, Minnesota, and Pierre, South Dakota, received more than 2 feet (61 cm) of snow on Christmas Day, and both had a white Christmas in 2019. The record in Wichita, Kansas was 4 inches (10,16 cm) (in 2007), and the last white Christmas there was seven years ago (2013).

Last year, on the morning of December 25, Minneapolis recorded 6 inches (15,24 cm) of snow on the ground, and Duluth recorded 18 inches (45,72 cm). The last time Des Moines, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Missouri had a white Christmas was 2017.

West

The heaviest snow depth on Christmas morning in Tahoe City, California was 52 inches (132 cm) (in 1970). The Denver record is 2 feet - 61 cm (in 1982). The last two Christmases in Denver there was no snow, but on Christmas morning 2019 the snow level in Tahoe City was 11 inches (27,94 cm).

Seattle and Portland experienced their sixth white Christmas on record three years ago. There was 25 inches (2 cm) of snow that morning December 5,08 in Seattle.

Further north, Alaska, Anchorage and Fairbanks (unsurprisingly) had a white Christmas last year with 5-inch (12,7 cm) and 14-inch (35,56 cm) layers of snow, respectively.

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South

Christmas snowfall is not just a northern phenomenon. In some years, parts of the southern United States marveled at the sight of a white Christmas.

The highest snow depth on December 25th in both Memphis (10 inches - 25,4 cm) and Nashville, Tennessee (6 inches - 15,24 cm) was recorded in 1963.

It's been at least 10 years since most of the south last saw a white Christmas, although there were traces of snow in Tulsa, Oklahoma in 2017.

Three relatively recent events have brought unusual Christmas snow cover to parts of the South:

• in 2009, there was a record snowstorm in Oklahoma City (13,5 inches of snow - 34,29 cm) and one of two white Christmas holidays in Dallas (2 inches - 5,08 cm);
• 2004 brought a record snowstorm in Corpus Christi, Texas (4,4 inches - 10,16 cm), and the first day of snow since 1895 in Brownsville, Texas (1,5 inches - 3,8 cm). Brownsville is at the same latitude as Miami;
• in 1989, a pre-Christmas snowfall was followed by a severe Arctic cold outbreak that brought snow to Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches) and Savannah, Georgia (10,16 inches), their only Christmas whites holidays. That same year, Jacksonville, Florida missed a white Christmas one day early with an inch of snow on the morning of the holiday.

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