On the night of February 24, a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine began. What to Expect Next: Comments from CIA Veterans and Ukrainian Experts

On Monday, February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially announced on the recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed "DPR" and "LPR" located on the territory of the Ukrainian Donbass, as well as ordered send troops there. However, most of the world leaders regarded Russia's actions as a blatant violation of international law and the official invasion of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine. Sanctions were imposed against Russia, but this did not stop Moscow. On the night of February 24, Vladimir Putin officially announced the start of a military operation against Ukraine and called on the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms. CIA veterans and Ukrainian military experts shared with ForumDaily what the outcome of the military campaign will be.

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real war

At least one direction of possible escalation appeared immediately after recognition: the question still remains open, within what borders will Russia recognize the self-proclaimed “republics”? Some Russian officials said that they are talking about territories that are in fact currently controlled by pro-Russian separatists. At the same time, according to the "constitutions" of the so-called "DNR" and "LNR", they include the entire territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov so I couldn't clearly answer journalists what kind of territory they are talking about.

On the night of February 24, an essentially full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine began. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken saidthat even before Thursday morning, Russian troops would invade Ukraine. Meanwhile, the heads of the self-proclaimed "republics" have asked Vladimir Putin to help them "in repelling the aggression of Ukraine on the basis of treaties of friendship and cooperation." Evening throughout Ukraine was introduced a state of emergency and closed airspace, as well as a call to the army of reservists. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky addressed to the people of Russia in Russian. A few hours later, Vladimir Putin announced that he had decided "to conduct a special military operation in connection with the situation in the Donbas."

CIA Veteran: 'Western Carelessness Will Lead to World War'

According to a former CIA officer, and now a cybersecurity specialist Paul Zalaki, there is little doubt that Putin will try to seize the remaining territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, as well as adjacent territories, for example, Mariupol and Nikolaev, which will give him the opportunity to break through a land corridor to Crimea, and in the long run cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea altogether. The only thing that can stop him, according to the former intelligence officer, is the most severe response from the West and the extremely high price that he will have to pay for aggression.

«This may be the shutdown of the Russian banking system from SWIFT with the closure of the secondary market for public debt for Russia and the deprivation of Russian oligarchs of access to all their savings abroad. The main point is that the West should do it immediately, without waiting for each new step of Putin. The current approach, in which sanctions are introduced gradually for each new action, obviously does not work, because Vladimir Putin is not afraid of such a prospect. The sanctions strike must be overwhelming so that he feels that he will have to pay a real price for his aggression”, Paul Zalaki is convinced.

Since the West does not seem ready for such measures at the moment, the former CIA officer considers the continuation of the war almost inevitable.

«Putin said in plain text that he does not recognize the existence of Ukraine as a state. I agree with one of the authors, an employee of the Ukrainian Catholic University, that Putin decided to destroy Ukraine back in 2009, immediately after the war in Georgia. According to published materials, even then he dreamed of dividing the country into 3 parts: the pro-Russian east, the puppet government in Kiev and the west of Ukraine, which was never important to him. Be that as it may, now Putin will try to get what he could not achieve in 2014. And I am very worried about the carelessness of Europe, which can directly lead to a new world war.”, Paul Zalaki fears.

The CIA veteran doesn't think Putin will venture to Kiev, but he does think Russia will do whatever it takes to create chaos in Ukraine.

«It can be the disruption of the utility system, power lines, the Internet, the increased dissemination of propaganda, cyber warfare. Even now, Russia's actions have an impact on investors, which is very harmful to the Ukrainian economy. Putin does not understand that Ukraine today is not the same as it was in the 1990s. The Russians will have to fight every city, every street, and in any case they will face a guerrilla war", the expert warns.

Land corridor to Crimea and NATO split

He is in many ways in solidarity with another CIA veteran, Michael Davidson. The expert recalled that the bizarre interpretation of Ukrainian history recently voiced by the Russian leader convincingly indicates that he intends to go to the end.

«Now that almost 190 Russian troops are actually encircling Ukraine, this is certainly within his power. I think one thing's for sure: he's occupying even more sovereign Ukrainian territory, and there's little Ukrainians can do about it.”, the former intelligence officer fears.

Michael Davidson recalled that since 2014, the Russian leadership has made it clear that they need a land corridor to the occupied Crimea, which, if implemented, will entail the capture of a large part of eastern Ukraine. The expert also noted that Putin's actions are largely dictated by his perception of America as a country torn apart by problems with weak leadership.

«One of his aims, of course, is to sow division in NATO by playing on close economic ties with Russia in Western Europe, especially in Germany." added Michael Davidson.

Former adviser to the Minister of Defense and head of the Center for Defense Reforms Alexander Danylyuk believes that against the backdrop of further military escalation, two scenarios can be realized: the creation of political and social destabilization, which would lead to a coup in Ukraine, or breaking through a corridor to Mariupol and later Crimea, cutting off Ukraine from the Sea of ​​Azov and seizing control over the Crimean Canal . At the same time, he fears that Ukraine will not be able to properly organize the defense of Mariupol.

Ukraine is vulnerable without the proper help of allies, recalled the people's deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of the VIII convocation, the former vice-president of PACE Georgy Logvinsky.

«The introduced package of sanctions cannot be called insignificant, but it cannot be said that it is effective either. We know Russian assets and correspondent accounts in the United States, their securities. Russia needs to be disconnected from SWIFT, and the task of Ukraine is to develop a strategy to counter aggression and seek its implementation from partners. It should also include a strategy of economic support for Ukraine", - said the former people's deputy.

At the same time, Logvinsky is sure that Ukraine can no longer rely on treaties and promises and must develop its own strategy for protecting its territory.

«It is necessary to foresee all scenarios, protect infrastructure facilities, provide alternative methods of ensuring the life of people, work with the population in order to avoid panic. I am afraid that today's Ukraine lacks the subjectivity for this, although a lot is certainly being done. We must be prepared for the worst possible scenarios, and our partners should stop playing pseudo-diplomacy", he summed up.

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