Scientists: there have been warming on Earth, but what is happening now has no analogues

The rates of global warming that have been observed in the past few decades have no analogs over the period covering the last 2000 years. Even the Small Ice Age, which took place on Earth from the 14th century to the 19th century, cannot be compared with the scale of climatic changes taking place now, according to a study by scientists at the University of Bern (Switzerland).

Фото: Depositphotos

The results of the research by Swiss scientists were published in scientific journals - Nature and Nature Geoscience (1 and 2). As the scientists emphasize, the data presented in the study suggests that the so-called “climate skeptics” - those who do not believe the generally accepted scientific ideas about global warming - have very weak arguments, writes Air force.

A graph of climate fluctuations compiled by scientists in different years over the past 2000 years clearly demonstrates that the current warming has no analogues in terms of the pace and scale of changes. Theories according to which the current climate change is another period of warming, which will later be replaced by cooling, can be called untenable, scientists emphasize.

According to them, there is no reason to talk about the similarity of what is happening now global warming with the periods of relative warming observed on Earth in the pre-industrial era.

Source: University of Bern

To understand the nature and nature of climate change taking place, a research team attempted to reconstruct climate data on Earth over the past 2000 years. To get an idea of ​​the nature of climate change, scientists analyzed the available data, such as measurements of corals, tree rings and thickness of lake sedimentary layers.

As a result, they came to the conclusion that all the climatic changes that occurred during this period were local, and not once in 2000 years did they occur on a global scale.

Even the Little Ice Age affected mainly the Pacific region and Europe. At the same time, the coldest period in the Pacific region occurred in the 15th century, and in Europe in the 17th century.

All studied large-scale climate change covered no more than half of the globe.

During the so-called Medieval Climatic Optimum (950 -1250 AD) - an era of relatively warm climate - climate changes affected only the Northern Hemisphere (in general, no more than 40% of the Earth's surface).

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The period of warming we are experiencing now is unlike anything that has happened on Earth before. The current global warming covers almost the entire territory of the globe - 98% of the Earth's surface.

“This shows us that global warming caused by anthropogenic factors is not only unprecedented in its rate of temperature change, but also completely unique in its scale,” the study says.

Scientists have noticed that in the pre-industrial era, volcanic activity was the main factor influencing climate change. Scientists did not find evidence that solar radiation could be one of the main factors that provoked climate change.

The changes that are observed now go far beyond the limits of natural climate fluctuations.

“By analyzing data on climate change, we see that the rate of warming occurring in recent years significantly exceeds the rate of natural climate change,” says Raphael Neukom, one of the study authors from the University of Bern. According to him, this observation also tells us about the unprecedented nature of climate change currently occurring.

Фото: Depositphotos

Although scientists have not set themselves the task of finding out whether human activity is the main factor influencing climate change, the data obtained in the course of the study indicate that global warming is happening with human activity.

“We did not focus on the possible causes of the current warming, since there was already a lot of research on this topic. And it must be said that the results of these studies have always indicated the anthropogenic nature of the ongoing global warming,” says Rafael Neukom.

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Many scientists from around the world expressed their admiration for the quality of research of their Swiss colleagues.

“They were very careful and careful in assessing the data available and received. They took into account the possible “natural” bias of these data, so we can say that the quality of the data obtained and its analysis is the main achievement of this study. Simply amazing,” says Professor Daniela Schmidt from the University of Bristol.

Many experts point out that, thanks to the research, it is possible to talk about the failure of many climate skeptics' arguments, which cast doubt on the unprecedented nature of the climatic changes that are taking place and on the fact that they were provoked by anthropogenic factors.

“This study should finally stop those who continue to deny climate change and argue that current warming is just part of a natural climate cycle,” says Professor Mark Maslin from University College London, who was not involved in the study.

“The study shows a really stark difference between the local climate changes that have occurred in the past and the global climate impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions,” says Mark Maslin.

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