Lukashenko’s triumph: “Normandy-Minsk” format

Following the analysis of the Minsk agreements signed by February 12, few people noticed the role of Belarus itself and its long-term leader in the success of negotiations between the conflicting parties.

I’ll quote Pavel Lobkov from the Kremlin-opposing Dozhd TV channel: “Now the capital of the world and cheese has moved to Minsk, and the last dictator of Europe, Alexander Lukashenko, feeds from the hands of those who still do not allow him to enter the door. “Everyone was fed what was produced in Belarus. We ate scrambled eggs, cheese, dairy products, and drank several buckets of coffee,” said the hospitable European President Lukashenko. The vague agreements of Kyiv, Donetsk and Lugansk may fall apart a hundred times over, Lukashenko’s glory will remain for centuries: in this poker he hit the jackpot.”

If the agreement Minsk-2, If 15 came into force in February, finally establishing peace in the east of Ukraine, then the initiative to nominate Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Alexander Lukashenko as candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize 2015 of the year may well sound.

We offer our readers current material from the famous Belarusian political scientist Sergei Musienko, who especially for “Daily Forum"considers the Belarusian factor in the negotiations and proposes its country as an international platform in the future.

Shimon Briman, Forum Daily editor for Israel and the CIS.

Format "Normandy - Minsk"

After a wild diplomatic week—Kyiv, Moscow, Munich, Washington—followed more than 15 hours of intense work by the Normandy Four at the Palace of Independence of Belarus.

This has already entered the history of world diplomacy. Although almost a day without sleep is not the final solution to the conflict in Ukraine.

11 and 12 in February, the leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine, the so-called “Norman Four”, held long and difficult negotiations at the Minsk site, which resulted in the appearance of two documents containing a set of measures to overcome the military conflict in Ukraine.

One long-awaited document developed by the Quartet was signed by members of the Trilateral Contact Group (from the OSCE, Ambassador Heidi Tagliavini, the second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, the heads of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky), who met at the same time, and not for the first time in Minsk.

In the “Set of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”, it is about some clarification of the September basic negotiating positions. In particular, the parties for 15 hours agreed on a cease-fire with 00 15 hours in February 2015 of the year, and on the breeding of heavy military equipment and artillery.

The documents were so “crooked”, as the financiers say, that Ukraine and Russia disagreed on what exactly they agreed upon during the negotiations.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has already stated that "the United States is ready to curb sanctions against Russia while implementing the Minsk agreements."

Vice President of the European Parliament Ryszard Charnetsky managed to criticize the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande for the Minsk Agreement.

Marshal of the Polish Sejm, the former foreign minister of this country, Radoslaw Sikorski, on the day of the talks, spoke in favor of the immediate start of arms supplies to the Ukrainian side.

It seems that few countries at the moment are really interested in stabilizing the situation in Ukraine. Poland and Lithuania, for example, make the most of the situation to attract NATO troops to their territory. Exercises are held monthly and on an increasing scale. Globally, militarization in Eastern Europe is an additional destabilizing factor.

During the negotiations, it became clear that the main thing was not to stand still, to go forward, to solve problems specifically, as it always was in Minsk. Consultations regarding the format and the generally possible conduct of all meetings in Minsk always went very hard, but they went. We in Minsk saw that Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Hollande really want to do everything for peace talks.

We did not see representatives of the United States and the European Union in Minsk, although Federica Mogherini welcomed the positive dynamics in the negotiations. It just shows the lack of unity between the EU countries on the stabilization of Ukraine.

Do what you want, go and look for compromises, talk, but do not stand still and do not shy away.

Now, on the eve of the 70 anniversary of Victory in the Second World War, you look at historical events from a different angle.

Let's remember the experience of our fathers - the French fighter aviation regiment "Normandie-Niemen", which fought during the Second World War.

Let us recall the joint flight program of the Soviet ship "Soyuz-19" and the American ship "Apollo" in the years of the "cold war".

Even in those turbulent and difficult times, they found ways not to lose the thread of communication and interaction.

Surprisingly, the “Minsk format” of negotiations is working, it has even already gathered Norman on its platform. Whether it is conceivable: European leaders came to visit the elegant and gallant “last dictator of Europe” and gave a chance for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict over Ukraine.

It turns out that in the face of a global and dangerous problem, both European and Belarusian leaders rejected mutual claims and offenses, and began to look for compromises.

The heads of the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR” Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky, who arrived in Minsk, at the same time, for the sake of peace, could meet with the President of Ukraine and drink tea.

Nevertheless, the cease-fire agreement is far from a definitive breakthrough in resolving the situation in Ukraine. You can talk about the "frostbitten conflict."

There are still no answers to important questions.

The most important thing is that the mechanism for implementing the Minsk agreements is completely incomprehensible. It turns out that any vile provocation can disrupt all high agreements !?

Maybe it’s time to combine the “Normandy”, “Milan”, “Geneva” and all other formats, especially since they do not bring much results? Stopping at Minsk - it makes more sense.

If you really want peace for the east of Ukraine, if you want this confrontation not to spread to “old” Europe, and then to the whole world, something needs to be done.

Today we see, “Normandy format” does not quite work either. There is no US in it, that's not working! Especially in Minsk at once the Quartet did the documents not only in their own languages, but also in English.

Let's propose, do something. But the sanctions regime will not work and this is also clear to everyone. Someone like Belarus knows this, with its “not entering” in many countries of the world “peacemaker-president”.

Belarus has the advantage of being the headquarters of the CIS and many countries trust it. There are many unresolved conflicts in the territories adjacent to Belarus.

For example, conflicts in Moldova, Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Nobody knows what will happen in the future, but they must be addressed. Take, for example, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia - the parties can always fly to Minsk and negotiate. Moreover, formally there has long been a so-called OSCE Minsk Group for Nagorno-Karabakh.

We will gain experience and then we can move on to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict - Minsk is open to everyone.

It is necessary to solve specific issues, the main thing - to ensure peace!

Author: Sergey Musienko, рHead of the Analytical Center EsooM (Belarus).