Tornadoes and floods: a dangerous storm is moving to Florida

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that before hitting Florida on Saturday, June 4, a band of downpours and thunderstorms could turn into tropical storm Alex or a tropical depression. Read more about the forecast told the publication CNN.

Photo: Shutterstock

Tropical storm warnings have been in effect since June 3 for more than 10 million people in southern Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 will generate sustained tropical storm winds of 1 miles (40 km) per hour with stronger gusts.

“The cyclone is expected to develop a clear center and become a tropical storm as early as Friday, June 3rd. May strengthen as it approaches Florida on June 3rd in the evening.

A tropical storm warning is in effect June 3 morning for Miami, Sarasota, the Florida Keys, West Palm Beach, Melbourne, Dry Tortuga, Florida Bay, and Lake Okeechobee, and along the west coast of Florida south of Longboat Key to Englewood, and the east coast of the state, south of Volusia-Brevard County to the Card Sound Bridge.

As of the morning of June 3, potential Tropical Cyclone 1 was 125 miles (201 km) northwest of Cozumel, Mexico, with maximum winds of 40 miles (64 km) per hour. It is moving northeast at 6 miles (9,6 km) per hour.

According to forecasters, the storm may intensify and turn into a tropical storm around June 3 in the afternoon, and is expected to make landfall in southwest Florida as early as June 4 in the morning.

On the subject: Forecasters predict catastrophic Atlantic hurricane season with Katrina-type hurricanes

There is a 90 percent chance that it will form into a depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

For a storm to be named (this season's middle name is Alex), it will need to create a well-defined center, according to the NHC. The first was named Storm Agathathat hit Mexico. It was the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast in May since records began in 1949. 11 people were killed, more than 20 are considered missing, many injured.

“Whether a storm forms or not, significant flooding can occur in south Florida and the Keys,” says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. "It's too early to tell where the heaviest rain will be because it's not even a storm yet, but models show that 12 to 16 inches (30-40 cm) of rain is possible in some areas."

Screenshot: NHC

"There is some variability in how this potential storm might play out, but there will certainly be heavy rainfall in southern Florida," the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said in a statement.

In addition to flash flooding, deep tropical moisture will rise ahead of the storm during the day of June 3 and 4.

"Potential tropical cyclone" is a term developed by the hurricane center so it can issue warnings for a storm that is expected to develop as it approaches land. Previously, warnings could not be issued until a tropical storm erupted, limiting preparation time.

South Florida

Computer models predict that a tropical storm or depression will form and hit southern Florida.

The path of the storm is of great importance, because if it takes a more southerly route, it could save densely populated areas of South Florida from a serious threat.

"Gusty winds and one or two isolated tornadoes will be the main major threat," the Miami Weather Service said. "Many details remain uncertain as they will depend on the exact path the storm takes."

Until the storm's center forms, Myers warns, it will be difficult for forecast models to accurately predict its path.

2 out of 3 ingredients needed for a hurricane

For a hurricane to form, you need "warm ocean water, mild wind shear and a cluster of pre-existing storms, there are 2 out of 3 right now," says Myers.

Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction as it moves up. If it is strong, as it is now in the Gulf of Mexico, it makes it difficult for hurricanes to form.

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“There are a lot of opposing forces right now,” Myers says. “It’s like trying to accelerate a car and not realizing that you have the emergency brake on.”

If the wind shear eases, there is a small chance this storm will intensify more than forecast.

Although this is the least likely scenario.

Another above-average hurricane season forecast

Just last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its forecast for this hurricane season.

The year is forecast to be above average, with 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-6 severe Category 3 and above hurricanes.

There are several contributing factors to a "busy" hurricane season.

Screenshot: NHC

"We're in an active period," NOAA spokesman Rick Spinrad said. “There are certain factors that determine the intensity and frequency of hurricanes.”

One of them is La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

This phenomenon creates cooler-than-average water temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean and leads to weather impacts around the world.

La Niña creates favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic - unlike El Niño.

Colorado State University has published its forecast. He anticipates 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

This is the largest number of named storms the CSU has ever forecast, said Phil Klotzbach, the forecast's author. In 2020, the university's forecast center predicted 19 storms, but that number included three storms that were before the start of the season.

There have been no storms this year yet.

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