Hurricane seasons start earlier: US meteorologists postponed forecast dates

The National Hurricane Center announced March 2 that it will officially begin issuing weather forecasts for the tropical hurricane season on May 15 of this year, as opposed to the traditional start of the season on June 1. This step was taken after the season began earlier more than once, writes Gizmodo.

Photo: Shutterstock

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to November 30. It is during this time that conditions are most conducive to the formation of storms due to warm air and water temperature. (The Pacific has its own hurricane season, which spans the same time frame, but because the waters are colder, it tends to generate fewer hurricanes than the Atlantic.)

Storms started to form in the Atlantic earlier, when ocean and air temperatures increased due to climate change. Hurricane Arthur hit the east coast last year on May 16. This storm made 2020 the sixth straight season that the hurricane formed ahead of the official start date on June 1. While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has no plans to move the start of the season yet, earlier projections are for recent history.

“Over the last decade, 10 storms formed within a few weeks of the traditional start of the season, that's a big jump,” said Sean Sublette, a meteorologist at Climate Central, noting that between the 1960s and 2010s. On average, 1-3 storms formed in each decade prior to the June 1 start date.

On the subject: Less than 100 days left before the new Atlantic hurricane season: what to prepare for

It might be tempting to attribute this earlier season solely to climate change, the warming of the Atlantic. But technology also has a role to play: observing systems along the coast are being strengthened, and satellites are emerging that can detect storms far out to sea.

“We can’t just say, ‘Huh, the planet is warming, we had to move the whole season!’” Sublette said. “I don't think there's a good reason for that.” The weather people can sit and talk about it for a while.”

Earlier storms will not necessarily be more dangerous. In fact, early-season hurricanes tend to be weaker than the monsters that form in August and September, when hurricane season reaches its peak. But regardless of their strength, these earlier hurricanes have sparked debate at the NHC about whether the official start date for the season should be pushed back. The key step for now is not an official announcement of this decision, but recognition of the increased attention to early hurricanes.

“I would say the National Hurricane Center is being proactive,” Sublette said. “It's like, 'hey, we know that May has been a little busier the last few years than we've seen in the last five decades, and we know there's awareness now, so we're going to start releasing these reports early.'"

You may be interested in: top New York news, stories of our immigrants and helpful tips about life in the Big Apple - read it all on ForumDaily New York

While it is still unknown if climate change is affecting the earlier season, research has shown that severe hurricanes are becoming more common and that climate change is likely to play a role.

A study published last year found that the likelihood of a storm becoming a major hurricane - a Category 3 or stronger - has increased by 49% since satellite monitoring began four decades ago. Rising sea levels allow storms to cause more damage. So, whether climate change affects the Atlantic Ocean or hurricane season arrives earlier or not, the risks are increasing.

Read also on ForumDaily:

A catastrophe like in The Day After Tomorrow: the currents of the world's oceans are slowing down, and this threatens with strong hurricanes

Business to save the planet: how to make money to fight global warming

11 things that you absolutely cannot save on in the US

Hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage: what were the worst blizzards in US history

Do you want more important and interesting news about life in the USA and immigration to America? — support us donate! Also subscribe to our page Facebook. Select the “Priority in display” option and read us first. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our РєР ° РЅР ° Р »РІ Telegram  and Instagram- there is a lot of interesting things there. And join thousands of readers ForumDaily New York — there you will find a lot of interesting and positive information about life in the metropolis.