Who among the world leaders will be the closest to the new president of Ukraine

Zelensky’s contacts with foreign leaders so far only outline the contours of Ukraine’s foreign policy in the next five years.

Фото: Depositphotos

On the night of April 21 on 22, in the non-public part of the headquarters of Vladimir Zelensky, the telephone trills did not stop. Politics congratulated on winning the presidential election. And not only relatives, relatives, acquaintances. World leaders, representatives of foreign ministries of foreign states congratulated the newly elected president of Ukraine. In a matter of hours, the result of the Ukrainian elections was legitimized, that is, recognized internationally.

Fast recognition

The observers were thoroughly surprised by the speed with which the Western world recognized the winner of the Ukrainian elections. Note that one of the first (if not the first) Vladimir Zelensky was congratulated on her Twitter by the head of the Swedish Foreign Ministry, Margot Wahlstrom. It happened literally an hour after the announcement of the exit poll results and soon after the race winner congratulated current president Petro Poroshenko.

Then Vladimir Zelensky in a telephone conversation congratulated with victory, Polish President Andrzej Duda. The leader of the neighboring state invited Vladimir Zelensky to visit Poland and expressed confidence that the choice of Ukrainians “will confirm Ukraine’s stability on the path to the Euro-Atlantic community.” Somewhat later, Zelensky was congratulated by French President Emmanuel Macron and Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan. And already when it was deep night in Kyiv, the winner of the elections in Ukraine rang US President Donald Trump.

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It should be noted that the Embassy of Ukraine in the United States was also the first to publish a statement congratulating Zelensky. But still the majority of congratulations the winner received through social networks.

Such speed in recognizing elections is rare in international practice. As a rule, leaders of foreign countries take a certain pause before reacting to the results of the will of the people. However, in this case, efficiency has its own explanations. Firstly, the West initially closely watched the elections in Ukraine and therefore was confident that they were held democratically and transparently, and therefore their result was not in doubt. In addition, the results of the National Exit Poll, which was financed and supported by a number of international organizations and institutions, in particular USAID, the Renaissance Foundation, the EU Embassy in Ukraine, etc., were not questioned.

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“The gap between the candidates was obvious. In addition, Petro Poroshenko himself admitted defeat and congratulated Zelensky. Therefore, Western leaders did not see any obstacles to congratulating the winner in the evening,” political scientist Vladimir Fesenko told the Segodnya website in a commentary. – In addition, we should not forget that the support of our state and the preservation of stability in our country are fundamentally important for all Western partners of Ukraine. And to put it more cynically and pragmatically, the preservation of Ukraine in the orbit of Western influence. So this is not so much support for Zelensky - it is support for Ukraine. And the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government.”

It is important, not when, but what is said

Photo: Instagram / zeteam2019

According to Ilya Kusa, an expert on international politics and the Middle East at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future analytical center, what is important is not which Western leader was the first to congratulate the new Ukrainian president, but the messages conveyed in the congratulations. And although, when publishing statements or talking with Vladimir Zelensky, Western politicians kept their rhetoric in extremely diplomatic tones, certain conclusions can still be drawn from their congratulations. And, perhaps, it is necessary.

“In the congratulations to Zelensky one can read hidden messages about what is expected of us in the West. Thus, the European Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy Johannes Hahn said that the new president has received strong support for the fight against corruption, noted Ilya Kusa. – The Chancellor of Austria also emphasized the fight against corruption. Someone mentioned judicial reform, someone mentioned investments. That is, everyone posted messages about pain points that irritate Europeans. By congratulating them, they made it clear to the new president what was expected of him and what he should pay attention to,” the expert said.

In this regard, it is easy to see that Western leaders expect from the new Ukrainian president, above all, the continuation and deepening of the initiated reforms, the commitment to democracy. There were also convictions that Ukraine will not turn from the path of European and Euro-Atlantic integration.

Will Washington clash with Paris for Ukraine?

Photo: White House official page on Facebook / The White House / Official White House Photo by D. Myles Cullen

Following the results of the new president’s talk with Western leaders, you can see some other hints of certain changes in foreign policy vectors. So, for example, the prompt congratulations of Donald Trump may be evidence of the subconscious sympathy of the American president to the new head of the Ukrainian state. Which for us is definitely a good sign.

“When Trump congratulated, there was something personal, it seems to me,” political scientist Vadim Karasev told the Segodnya website in a commentary. – This is a kind of support for the trend when non-systemic politicians come to power. Support for Trump is deciphered this way: “Well, look what I told you! You criticize me here in America. But all over the world, non-systemic leaders who bring change are coming to power through democratic means.” That is, the arrival of Zelensky to a certain extent confirms that Trump is right, that Trump is the leader of these changes. And this is positive for Zelensky in some way,” the political scientist notes.

Another sign is Vladimir Zelensky’s meeting before the second round with French President Emmanuel Macron. Historically, during Poroshenko’s presidency, the main “curator” of Ukraine was German Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, the construction of Nord Stream 2 has complicated relations between our countries. In addition, Merkel, as we know, is retiring from politics, and it is unknown whether her successors as Chancellor of Germany will be equally favorable towards our country. In this regard, establishing relations with the French President, who claims to be the leader of the EU, is a positive moment.

“Macron and France will try to seize the initiative from Germany in the EU negotiations with Ukraine and dominate the negotiations on Ukraine. Play the first fiddle in determining negotiation formats. This is beneficial for Macron for political reasons, and beneficial for France, which considers itself a European leader. And, I think, if we want to change the format of negotiations on Donbass, we will now need to go first to Paris and then to Berlin. That’s how I understand it,” notes Ilya Kusa.

At the same time, the expert does not exclude that the struggle for influence on Ukraine will complicate the already very tense relations between the French and American presidents.

“It is clear that the United States will not give up its influence on Ukraine. As Kurt Volker said, “we are in Ukraine for a long time.” Therefore, if the Zelensky administration tries to involve the United States in the Normandy format, there will be a confrontation between the United States and France. France will be against it,” Ilya Kusa suggested.

Where to go to the new president?

Фото: Depositphotos

According to experts, from a symbolic point of view, the first foreign visit of Vladimir Zelensky, and also, of course, the figure of the Minister of Foreign Affairs will be important.

“It is important who Vladimir Zelensky will nominate for the post of head of the Foreign Ministry. If Poroshenko, in fact, was the de facto minister of foreign affairs and led foreign policy, then Zelensky, most likely, will still be in charge of this as the head of the foreign policy department. Therefore, for him, presenting a worthy candidate is one of the key tasks in the context of establishing relationships with Ukraine’s foreign partners,” notes Vladimir Fesenko.

Although the new president has already received several offers to pay a visit, according to Ilya Kusa, Vladimir Zelensky should pay attention primarily to neighboring countries.

“The first visit carries great symbolic and political significance. I would like Vladimir Zelensky to make his first visit to Warsaw. Taking into account current regional and global trends, taking into account the fact that Poland today is our closest neighbor, establishing even closer relations would be the right step. That is, first of all, not London, not Paris, not Brussels, not Washington - but the neighbors. Moreover, after Warsaw it would be good to see a Visegrad tour – to the countries of the Visegrad Four,” noted Ilya Kusa.

Photo: Facebook / The White House

Zelensky has only a year

In general, experts agree that in relations with the West the new president will have a “honeymoon”, a certain “grace period”. True, not as preferential as Petro Poroshenko had in 2014.

“I think international partners will support us in any case,” notes Ilya Kusa. “It’s important what we offer.” It is clear that if we do not offer anything, but walk around with our hand outstretched, then, of course, we will be treated accordingly. Vladimir Zelensky is in a worse position than Poroshenko in 2014. Because well-known historical events took place in 2014 - revolution, annexation of Crimea, war. Poroshenko initially had a much higher credibility and a more powerful historical background. That is, the West was ready to give immediately. They won’t give it to Zelensky right away - they will demand it. Or wait for initiatives and first steps. Zelensky will need to quickly come up with something and propose something,” the expert notes.

According to political scientist Vadim Karasev, Zelensky in the foreign policy arena expects, rather, not a “honeymoon”, but a “month of positive expectations.”

“They will look closely, they will look at the first steps, where the first visit will be, what messages will be on Minsk, on the Normandy format and the conflict in Donbass, what personnel will be placed. In general, observe,” notes Vadim Karasev.

According to Vladimir Fesenko, such a loyal attitude towards newly elected presidents is, in principle, characteristic of world practice. He recalled that, for example, the “honeymoon” in international relations between the West and Ukraine after the election of Viktor Yushchenko as president lasted until the resignation of Yulia Tymoshenko’s government in September 2005.

“But after the conflicts in Yushchenko’s team, after the resignation of the Tymoshenko government, relations not only deteriorated, but cooled,” recalled Vladimir Fesenko.

According to a political scientist, Vladimir Zelensky has about a year when the West will demonstrate increased loyalty.

“This is, of course, unless something extraordinary happens. And after a year they will evaluate it more seriously and, perhaps, they will adjust their assessments and their attitude,” the expert noted.

Russia is waiting

Separately, you need to say about the aggressor country. From Vladimir Putin, the newly elected President of Ukraine did not receive congratulations. That, in principle, is absolutely consistent with the logic of the state leading the war against us and occupying part of the territory of Ukraine. Nevertheless, as it was made clear in the Kremlin, they expect that Vladimir Zelensky will be more compliant than his predecessor. However, this was expressed without much confidence and rather restrained.

Thus, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, noted that it was too early to judge the possibilities of working together between Vladimir Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said he was confident that Zelensky’s rhetoric would not change, but he still hopes for better interaction.

“As for the Russian reaction, they don’t want to show their cards right away. They themselves don’t really understand what to expect from Zelensky. In recent days, he has had various vague messages in different terminology - from terrorists to insurgents. And they want some certainty. They want to pause, to hear some statements from him as an elected president - even if he has not taken office. And only then make some decisions,” notes Vadim Karasev.

However, one resonant decision has already been made - April 24, Putin signed a decree to simplify the issuance of Russian passports to Ukrainians who live in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Ukraine responded immediately to the UN Security Council. According to experts, the decision of the Kremlin should be the reason for the new package of anti-Russian sanctions from the West.

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

• Showman Vladimir Zelensky won the presidential election in Ukraineby typing 73% of votes.
• Here as Vladimir Zelensky himself responded to win after these exit polls. Here is the reaction of Petro Poroshenko.
• 10 facts about Zelensky: when and where he was born, how he made his career, what assets he owns and how long he intends to hold the presidency. In this news - facts about his wife Elena, the future first lady of Ukraine.
• Information that publishes an Israeli press about Zelenskywho found his Jewish roots.
• "From D'Artagnan to the Servant of the People": what films did Zelensky star in.

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