US intelligence: Putin took direct control of military operations in Ukraine

The Russian military is divided over how best to counter Ukraine's surprise offensive on the battlefield this month as Moscow has to defend both the east and south, reports CNN.

Photo: IStock

Two sources familiar with US and Western intelligence said that Russian President Vladimir Putin himself gives instructions directly to generals in the field. A highly unusual management tactic in today's military that these sources say hints at the inefficient command structure that has plagued Russia since the start of the war.

Intercepts show Russian officers bickering and complaining to friends and relatives back home about decisions being made by Moscow, one of the sources said.

And there are serious disagreements on strategy with military leaders trying to agree on where to focus their efforts to bolster their defensive lines, multiple U.S. intelligence sources said.

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The Russian Defense Ministry has said it is moving forces towards Kharkiv in the northeast, where Ukraine has made its most impressive gains, but U.S. and Western sources say the bulk of Russian troops still remain in the south, where Ukraine has also launched offensive operations. around Kherson.

On September 21, Putin announced a partial mobilization, which is expected to include up to 300 reservists. For months, he resisted the move, with Biden administration officials saying that his doing so now highlights the severity of Russia's lack of power and signals growing desperation.

According to Russian military analysts, it is unclear whether the mobilization will have any operational significance on the battlefield or simply prolong the war without changing its outcome.

Blame game

And while Russia hesitates on the battlefield, officials in Moscow are doing their best to lay the blame on the military for the drastic turn in the situation, a senior NATO official said.

“Kremlin officials and experts in the state media are feverishly discussing the reasons for the Kharkiv failure, and in typical fashion, the Kremlin seems to be trying to shift the blame from Putin to the Russian military,” the man said.

In response to the setbacks on the battlefield, sources say, there has already been a reshuffling of the military leadership, leaving Russia's command structure even more disorderly than before. The commander, who led most of the units in the Kharkiv region, was on duty for only 15 days and has now been relieved of his post, a NATO official said.

Russia, according to two U.S. Department of Defense officials, has sent a "small number" of troops into eastern Ukraine - some of them fled last week's ZSU offensive in an attempt to bolster their weakened defensive lines.

But even if Russia can unite around the plan, US and Western officials believe Russia is limited in its ability to mount a strategically important response to Ukraine's counter-offensives, which sources say have shifted momentum in Kyiv's favor in recent days. Even after the announcement of a partial mobilization, officials remain skeptical that Russia, given its persistent problems with supply lines, communications and morale, is capable of rapidly moving large numbers of troops into Ukraine.

The "small scale" of the Russian redeployment is a signal of its inability to conduct any major operations, a senior Defense Department official said.

So far, Russia has responded to Ukraine's advances by striking critical infrastructure such as dams and power plants — strikes that the U.S. sees mostly as "revenge" attacks rather than operationally significant salvos, the official said.

In the absence of additional forces, which it simply does not currently have, Russia has few other options to push back Ukrainian forces, sources said. Putin is "fighting," as National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby said in a Sept. 21 speech. In the Russian armed forces, "poor unit cohesion, desertion in the ranks and soldiers who do not want to fight," he noted.

“They have terrible morale, as well as unit cohesion on the battlefield, command and control issues have not yet been resolved. Russia has a problem with desertion, and the military forces the wounded to return to battle. Clearly, human resources are a problem for Putin,” Kirby said. “He feels out of place, especially in this northeastern region of Donbass.”

Mobilization order is a sign that Putin's plan is not working

Putin's mobilization order is important because, according to military analysts, it is a direct admission that Moscow's "special military operation" has not worked and needs to be corrected.

But at the moment there are more questions than answers. This is the first such order issued in Russia since World War II, offering military analysts limited up-to-date data on which to base their forecasts.

“Even if Moscow succeeds in increasing the number of soldiers – both by preventing the dismissal of active contract soldiers and by mobilizing reservists – it will be difficult for it to train, equip and integrate these troops into existing units,” said Michael Kofman, director of the US Armed Forces. And even if it solves some short-term staffing issues, it likely won't be highly qualified recruits, Kofman and others noted.

Even in the best case, it will take some time for Moscow to field fresh troops.

“I think it's reasonable to say that partial mobilization probably won't hit the battlefield in the next few months. It can increase Russia's ability to endure this war, but not change its outcome, ”Kofman is convinced.

Russia's long-standing failures in planning, communications and logistics were exacerbated by losses during the retreat from Kharkov, the sources said. According to a NATO official, during the retreat, Russia left "a lot" of equipment.

“With the northern axis nearly destroyed, it will be more difficult for Russian forces to slow down the Ukrainian advance, as well as provide cover for the retreating Russian troops,” the official said. “We think this will seriously undermine Russia’s plans to occupy the entire Donbas.”

On September 21, Putin once again threatened to use nuclear weapons. U.S. officials said they take the threat "seriously" but see no immediate signs that he plans to pursue it.

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Pro-Russian authorities in some of the eastern occupied regions of Ukraine have announced their intention to hold political referendums on joining Russia, which some analysts say could be used by Russia as a pretext for military action.

But, according to a senior NATO official, “In general, Russia is now on the defensive. The initiative belongs to Ukraine, which forces Russia to take temporary measures simply to avoid further losses.”

“If Ukraine manages to conduct lengthy defensive operations, this could further undermine the stability of Russian defense,” the man concluded.

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

• On September 21, Putin announced the mobilization in the Russian Federation: the Russians have sold out all the tickets abroad and google 'how to break your arm''.
• The first mobilized Russians are already being prepared for shipment to Ukraine: summons to the citizens of Buryatia liable for military service began to issue on the evening of September 21.
• And journalists, under the guise of military commissars, phoned the sons of Peskov and Mishustin to invite them to the military registration and enlistment office: read what the offspring of politicians answered in our material.
• On the evening of September 21, Putin released some of the prisoners foreigners and Ukrainians.
• Protests were held all over Russia. In Moscow, some detainees at a rally against mobilization, which took place on September 21, in police departments handed the summons to the military offices.

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