Year after year: the world can survive the Chinese coronavirus epidemic every winter

An outbreak of the virus in 2009 led to the emergence of a strain of H1N1 flu that never disappeared. Although it continues to spread around the globe like a seasonal virus, swine flu does far less harm and anxiety than it did in its first deadly year. Writes about it USA Today.

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Doctors and researchers see parallels between this pandemic and the mysterious new coronavirus threat 2019-nCoV.

The pace of the new viral threat, first reported on December 31 in Wuhan, China, is breathtaking: 28 cases and 353 deaths as of Thursday, February 565th. The outbreak is mainly localized in mainland China; 6 cases were reported elsewhere, including 265 in the United States and one death in Hong Kong and the Philippines.

Public health officials are desperate to slow the spread of the respiratory virus through reliable screening, quarantine and travel bans. As doctors and scientists specializing in infectious diseases monitor the threat, they study past outbreaks to determine what the new coronavirus will do.

In the best case, the virus will disappear after the outbreak. This is what happened in 2003 with another deadly coronavirus, a severe acute respiratory syndrome known as SARS.

But many researchers say 2019-nCoV may be here to stay. Like swine flu, it could become a common winter ingredient - like those that cause common colds and other illnesses, but without the travel restrictions and disruption to global trade.

“It’s very difficult to contain a respiratory virus like we saw with H1N1,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “This coronavirus may establish itself as one of the coronaviruses that we will be dealing with for some time during the season.”

Representatives of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predict that in this case there will be more cases, but they work to slow the spread by expanding tests, isolating infected people, tracking those who have been in close contact with infected people and limiting journey.

“We have the opportunity to slow the virus before it gets to the United States,” Messonnier said. “We made an aggressive decision in the face of an unprecedented threat.”

“This is a rogue virus”

Experts suspect that there are more global cases than publicly reported. Researchers at the University of Hong Kong have estimated that 25 people were infected in Wuhan as of January 75, and the epidemic is projected to double every 815 days.

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“Independent independent outbreaks in large cities were analyzed by specialists in a study published on January 31 in The Lancet.

The grim prediction included a caveat—little is known about the seasonality of the new coronavirus. If it's like influenza, which mainly spreads in autumn and winter, "our epidemic forecast may not be reliable," the Hong Kong researchers said.

If the virus becomes a seasonal disease, infectious disease doctors say its spread may be limited in the spring and summer months when respiratory viruses such as the flu or other lesser-known coronaviruses disappear due to heat and humidity.

“Could it be that the change of seasons has an effect on the virus? God knows, we hope so,” said William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “This happens with human coronaviruses, we know that. But this is a rogue virus.”

The new virus is not atypical

Infectious Disease Doctors and Scientists Collect Essential Data on 2019-nCoV. They suspect that the virus has passed from animal to person and may spread from person to person, but remain unknown, including information on how deadly it is and whether it can spread by infected people without symptoms.

About 2% of coronavirus infected in China have died, but this mortality rate may decline, as testing will reveal milder cases. According to the Chinese government, older people with concomitant diseases face a high risk of SARS, which also occurred in China and spread to 8 cases worldwide and 098 deaths, with a mortality rate of 774%.

Although SARS was more deadly than the new coronavirus, the outbreak was much more limited. It first appeared in southern China in November 2012, but a delay in government reporting meant that the World Health Organization issued a global warning only in March 2013. After spreading to two dozen countries, an outbreak was announced four months later.

Rachel Graham, a professor at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Public Health, said SARS was easier to detect because the symptoms were more severe and stood out from other seasonal diseases.

“This new virus is not SARS. It's related, but it's a different virus,” Graham said.

Scientist John Hopkins called the outbreak 2019-nCoV serious and “explosive,” he sees the similarities between the new virus and less dangerous coronaviruses, which spread faster and have a lower mortality rate than SARS.

Coronaviruses 229E and OC43 have existed since the 1960s and cause colds. The other two identified after SARS, NL63 and HKU1, spread during the winter months, causing common respiratory illnesses such as bronchitis and pneumonia.

“Tearing the country apart very quickly”

Lessons from the past do not help government and industry understand what to expect from this year's coronavirus.

Some experts hoped that China could return to work on Monday, at the end of extended leave for workers in two dozen provinces. Such a step would mean that the virus began to hold back, but by the end of the day this hope had disappeared.

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“Most pandemic experts think this is unstoppable,” said Stephen Morrison, senior vice president for global health policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The virus is tearing apart the country very quickly.”

Morrison said the lack of confidence made it difficult to plan flights for airlines and other businesses in China.

"They're all trying to figure out scenarios and timelines to some degree," he said.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce said the most important thing is the virus.

“Our companies are taking responsible steps to counter the threat and doing everything possible to support relief efforts in China,” the House statement said.

Much depends on China's efforts to curb global distribution. Wuhan’s quarantine with a population of 11 million and travel restrictions make up “the largest public health experiment in the history of public health.”

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