NYT found evidence that Russia is systematically supplying weapons to eastern Ukraine

Research on weapons and ammunition used in the war in Ukraine shows that Russia is systematically fanning the conflict with its arms shipments. Writes about it The New York Times.

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The study is not the first to conclude that the United States and European countries have imposed sanctions on Russia for years for transferring weapons to separatist forces that they say Moscow supports in Ukraine.

But to date, this study is one of the most comprehensive on this issue. While it is unlikely to change the big picture, it provides a detailed view of the illegal arms trade in Ukraine and also illustrates the scale of the arms trade that fuels the only active war in Europe.

Earlier analyzes of Russian arms shipments to Ukraine relied on photographs or government intelligence. The new report is about real weapons.

Researchers examined dozens of rifles, grenade launchers, anti-aircraft missiles and thousands of rounds of ammunition taken from captured or killed militants or from positions they occupied.

Investigators examined the weapons found and traced serial numbers and other manufacturer identification marks. It was “a window into a largely forgotten conflict that has been raging on the fringes of Europe since early 2014,” the report said.

The document, entitled "Weapons of War in Ukraine," indicates that militants in the east of the country are equipped with weapons inherited from the former Soviet Union.

The war, which unfolded about 280 miles (450 km) across the plain of eastern Ukraine, began after street protesters toppled Ukraine's pro-Russian president in 2014. Russia responded with military intervention, which it never acknowledged.

The Kremlin has consistently denied the transfer of weapons to Ukraine, even after Western governments documented large weapons crossing the border. This included a tracked surface-to-air missile system that shot down a civilian airliner in 2014, killing all 298 people on board. Russian officials have accused Western governments of fueling the conflict with military support from the Ukrainian government, including the United States supply of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Turkey's supply of Bayraktar combat drones.

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This fall, the conflict has raised alarm again. Commercial satellite photos and videos posted on social media show Russian tanks and other armored vehicles near the Ukrainian border, raising fears of a direct invasion.

And the volumes of arms supplies to the puppet forces already in Ukraine, indicated in the new report, underline the instability of the situation. The study, conducted by Conflict Armament Research, a UK-based arms tracking company, was funded by the European Union and the German Federal Foreign Office.

The study looked primarily at small arms, the simplest but often the deadliest in wars, even when more sophisticated weapons are used, as in the case of Ukraine.

During the study, weapons were discovered that, according to the researchers, could not have appeared out of nowhere other than from Russian military arsenals. For example, several types of grenade launchers, sniper rifles and landmines were discovered that were never in service with the Ukrainian armed forces and, therefore, could not be captured and used by militants.

Specialized weapons also appeared. Researchers say they have documented a Russian factory "defensive device," or booby-trap, that can be planted under a land mine. It explodes when someone tries to defuse the mine.

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More subtle evidence indicates that the militants have direct support from Russia.

The report notes that Kalashnikovs found in the illicit small arms trade during conflicts in developing countries, where they are the everyday weapons of many militant groups, are usually assembled from parts of several assault rifles. Mismatched component serial numbers are common. But this was not the case in eastern Ukraine, the report said: the rifles had identical parts, suggesting a more direct path from the factory to the battlefield.

The study tracked 4793 pieces of small arms ammunition and 43 weapons found on battlefields from 2014 to 2019. Analysts tracked ammunition by "stamps," or stamped markings wrapped around the primers on the shells, and weapons by serial numbers. The Russian government and Russian weapons manufacturers did not respond to the researchers' requests.

Bullet studies have drawn a more detailed picture of the sources. According to the researchers, the entire sample of ammunition for small arms was produced at facilities located on the territory of modern Russia. The predominance of the caliber of ammunition used in Kalashnikov assault rifles only after 1974 suggested a more modern arsenal. But a significant part of it was stored in the warehouse for many years, so the question of its origin remained unclear.

The bullets examined in the study were produced over a 65-year period, with the oldest being a Kalashnikov assault rifle cartridge produced in 1948—just a year after the rifle was first introduced to the Soviet Union.

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