A new subtropical cyclone forms over the Atlantic: it can go down in history
The meteorological situation in the central Atlantic suggests that even before the official start of the hurricane season (June 1), a third tropical or subtropical depression (cyclone) may form after the storms of Arthur and Bert, writes Weather.com. Даже два таких «досрочных» явления редкость, а три зафиксированы лишь однажды в истории наблюдений — в 1951 году.
Вечером в четверг, 28 мая, Национальный центр ураганов (NHC) обозначил эту систему как Invest 92L — такая кодировка позволяет специальной компьютерной модели рассматривать возможные варианты развития событий.
В NHC дают этой погодной системе средние шансы на развитие к выходным — не позднее субботы, 30 мая.
Invest 92L производит разрозненные грозы и порывистые ветры в своем восточном полукруге, и если эта система продолжит развиваться, она вероятно по своей природе станет субтропической. Это означает, что погодное явление получит энергию как от теплой воды, так и от струйного потока, в данном случае — от субтропического.
Development is likely to be slow, as both of these energy sources will remain limited. Subtropical systems are usually quite wide with a spacious wind field, which makes it difficult to strengthen them.
On the subject: Hurricanes around the world are getting stronger and more intense: what comes next
The system is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda and is expected to move mostly north over the coming days. Presumably, the Invest 92L will first orient itself to the north-west with a large high-pressure zone, and then the cold front, which will move from the East coast in this direction, will not allow it to approach the USA or Canada.
Bermuda will probably not be affected directly by this system, but the cold front that Invest 92L will take to the sea can bring some rain and gusty winds to the islands. There will be a storm in the sea.
The next system, capable of achieving the intensity of tropical storms, will be named Cristobal. The first two, recall, were named Arthur и Bertha.
What will be the hurricane season in 2020
Пока, до официального начала сезона в Атлантике, над США пронеслись два урагана — Артур две недели назад и Берта в начале последней недели мая. Метеорологи утверждают, что на данный момент трудно давать прогнозы на весь сезон ураганов, основываясь лишь на той активности, что была до сих пор.
Just one hurricane season brought 3 tropical or subtropical cyclones before the official start of the season on June 1: this was in 1951. Then in January, a tropical storm formed, followed by Hurricane Abel and a tropical depression in May.
On the subject: Dozens of devastating storms: US residents face an unusually harsh hurricane season
According to Phil Klotsbach, a researcher of tropical systems from the University of Colorado, only four times before June 1 were two storms recorded for the entire observation period from 1851: in 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012.
#Bertha has formed near the coast of South Carolina — the 2nd named storm of the 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. The only years on record (since 1851) with 2 Atlantic named storms prior to May 27 are 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012. pic.twitter.com/hhLngR2q1V
- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) May 27, 2020
Nevertheless, if you look at forecasts, and not at history, many experts predict the above-average hurricane season, including experts from The Weather Company and NOAA.
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