Storm Nicole is approaching Florida: floods and destruction threaten the state

As Subtropical Storm Nicole begins to transition into a tropical storm and intensify, the potential Category 1 hurricane's projected path shifted northward to make landfall closer to Brevard County late in the day on November 9 or early on November 10. This path could lead him right over Orlando, reports OrlandoSentinel.

Photo: IStock

As of 7:8 a.m. Nov. 620, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that Nicole is approximately 830 miles east-northeast of the northwest Bahamas and 80 miles east of Melbourne Beach, Florida, currently wind speed reaches 12 km/h and west-northwest speed 10 km/h. Forecasters expect the storm to turn west and even west-southwest tonight, and northwest on November XNUMX.

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"Nicole is expected to transition to a tropical storm later on November 8 and begin to intensify and is forecast to be close to or reaching hurricane strength near the northwestern Bahamas by the night of November 9 and approaching the east coast of Florida," the forecasters said.

A subtropical storm is powered by changes in temperature and pressure between two large weather systems, resulting in a cooler center and stronger winds further from the core. Tropical storm winds Nicole extend to 600 km. However, as it moves over warmer water, the center of the storm should become more compact with a sharper core.

The storm's motion uncertainty still has a wide band, with the storm predicted to move anywhere from Delray Beach south to north just off the coast of Jacksonville. The center of the storm will approach southern Brevard County late on November 9, making landfall after midnight with sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts up to 140 km/h.

Its path could pass directly over Orlando as a tropical storm with sustained winds of over 80 mph and 100 mph gusts before it shifts northward to Gainesville and Tallahassee and into the southern United States.

However, the NHC is warning of dangers that extend hundreds of miles from its center.

"Do not focus on Nicole's exact path as it is expected to be a severe storm with impacts extending far north of the center, beyond the forecast cone," the NHC said. “These hazards will likely affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeastern United States.”

4 am EST Tuesday, November 8 Key Messages for Subtropical Storm #Nicole.https://t.co/wsanWPjlys pic.twitter.com/V40NugL7Uw

- National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 8, 2022

The NHC has been monitoring hurricanes from the Brevard-Volusia County line south to Hallandale Beach as well as Lake Okeechobee, and has also issued tropical storm warnings from Hallandale Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. On November 8, the NHC added the west coast of Florida from north Bonita Beach to the Okhlokoni River to watch for the tropical storm.

Land-based tropical storm warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne for Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia counties, while Marion, Polk and Sumter counties are under tropical storm watch.

1-minute Mesoscale Sector @NOAASatellites
#GOES16/#GOESeast Visible & Infrared images showed the meandering exposed low-level circulation of #SubtropicalStormNicole southeast of Buoy 41047 — flanked by meager bursts of convection: https://t.co/6WyCqKChHL pic.twitter.com/swx3jKGyFr

- UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) November 8, 2022

Before Florida, however, the system will pass over the northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning is in effect for Abacos, Berry, Bimini, and Grand Bahama, and a tropical storm warning for Andros, New Providence, and Eleuthera.

“Hurricane conditions are expected across the northwestern Bahamas in the hurricane warning area on November 9, with tropical storm conditions expected throughout the northwestern Bahamas by the evening,” forecasters said. — Hurricanes are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of Florida by the evening of November 9, with a tropical storm expected by the evening or early of November 9. "Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida by later that evening."

The next NHC Interim Notice is issued at 7am and the next track projection is at 10am.

While damaging winds are a concern, Central Florida, still reeling from flooding from a September hurricane, can expect more rain to fall from the system. The NHC said Nicole will bring 1 to 2 cm of rain, with up to 3 cm in some areas of the Florida peninsula. The NWS in Melbourne said Central Florida could see about 2 cm of rain in eastern Osceola and Brevard counties north across the basin St. Johns River.

“Urban drainage flooding is becoming increasingly likely, especially where groundwater levels remain high,” the NWS said. — The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could also cause additional concerns about flooding and standing water in the St. Johns River basin, where river flood warnings remain in effect. A flood warning will likely be issued for all of eastern and central Florida today.”

The coasts of Brevard and Volusia are also subject to 2 to 3 m high waves, which are starting to increase today as the system approaches, the NWS said.

“Numerous life-threatening rip currents will continue. High winds and high surf will combine with continued high tides to result in significant storm surge and severe beach erosion during the next several tide cycles from Nov. 8 to 10, the NWS said. “Coastal areas of Volusia County, which were severely impacted by Hurricane Ian, remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach erosion and flooding from coastal flooding.”

An NHC Storm Surge Warning of 1m to 1,5m could be seen from North Palm Beach to Georgia, and 0,6m to 1.2m from the mouth of the St. Johns River south to Georgetown, Florida , in Putnam County. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on November 7 for 34 counties in the storm's potential path, including all of Central Florida.

34 counties: Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardy, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange , Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. John's, St. Lucy, Sumter and Volusia.

“While it does not appear at this time that this storm will become much stronger, I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and heed local emergency declarations,” DeSantis said in a press release. “We will continue to monitor the track and strength of this storm as it moves toward Florida.”

“Regardless of the final footprint or intensity, impacts from Nicole are expected in east Central Florida,” the NWS Melbourne office said. - Preparations need to be completed by November 9th as conditions will quickly deteriorate in the afternoon. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and any warnings. Those still facing the devastating effects of Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to prepare and monitor the forecast.”

Earlier on Nov. 7, DeSantis said state emergency officials would contact all 67 statewide counties to identify potential resource gaps and enact the state's plans to respond quickly and effectively to the system.

"I urge all Floridians to be prepared and plan in case a storm hits Florida," he said in a press release.

The release reminded Florida residents “to know if they are living in an evacuation zone, in a low-lying, flood-prone area, in a mobile home, or in an unsafe facility during hurricane season. It is also very important for residents to know their home and its ability to withstand strong winds and heavy rain.”

One of the counties with severe shoreline damage from Ian was Volusia, and emergency director Jim Judge said winds from the north and east quadrants of the system again posed a particular threat.

“We need to take this storm very seriously because it has the potential to cause even more coastal erosion, which could have devastating consequences for our coastal properties impacted by Hurricane Ian,” he said. “We are also expecting rainfall amounts of 1,5 to 3 cm through November 11, which could cause flooding, as well as tropical storm-force winds that could cause widespread power outages.”

Seminole County emergency officials also said Nov. 7 that they are bracing for inches of rain this week, especially in areas where floodwaters from Hurricane Ian have just begun to recede.

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"Nobody wants to hear this, but that's what it looks like today," said Alan Harris, director of the office of emergency management. “Every forecast got a little worse for us.”

The St. Johns River is currently in a minor flood stage. But the upcoming rains could bring moderate flooding, county officials said, with 2 to 3 cm of rain falling in some areas.

Harris also said the potential of the zigzag path is a concern as it moves across the state.

“A double whammy, I think, is quite possible,” he said. “We've seen this before in Seminole County in 2008.” "I'm not saying it's going to be a tropical storm like it was then, but the path of this storm is very similar, where the storm hit us, did a U-turn and then came back to us."

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