The collapse of Bitcoin, the rise of Democrats to power in the US and other “shocking predictions” for 2018

Already 15 years Danish bank Saxo Bank determines 10 events, the probability of which is greatly underestimated. This year, the list published in the annual report “Shocking predictions” included the collapse of Bitcoin, the triumph of corporate feminism, the weakening of Apple and the change in the mood of the American electorate, writes Russian service BBC.In this study, financiers talk about events, the probability of which is estimated by the majority of people in 1%, but in fact they can occur with a probability in 10% and even higher.

Saxo Bank emphasizes that “Shocking Predictions” is not a forecast, but only a reminder that one should not underestimate the likelihood of some negative events.

Bitcoin collapse

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are one of the most significant phenomena in financial markets in recent years, notes Saxo Bank. The report says that the value of Bitcoin could fall sharply in 2018. A collapse could occur after Russia and China ban cryptocurrencies, analysts say. Bitcoin will reach its peak of $60 and a capitalization of $1 trillion, and then the quotes will fall to the cost of mining - about $1000 per bitcoin, the report says.

Women bosses

In 2018, the trend towards increasing the proportion of women leaders will become “super-exponential”. Number of women on the list of CEOs F will grow 2 times, the study says.

“Change is coming, not just because it’s the fair thing to do, but for the practical reasons that women recognizing their potential is the only way left to grow the pie without increasing the population of our low-productivity and aging economies,” the report’s authors write.

Left sentiment in the USA

American politics in 2018 will be greatly influenced by a demographic shift—the ethnically mixed generation born after 1981 will play an increasingly important role.

In addition, many Democrats are not shy about resorting to populist methods, the study says. According to analysts Saxo BankAll this may lead to the fact that according to the results of the November congressional elections, the Democrats will receive a majority in both chambers of Congress.

Фото: Depositphotos

"Austro-Hungarian Empire"

Disagreements between the old members of the European Union and euro-skeptic states in 2018 may become irreconcilable, the study says. Relations between them deteriorate because of the migrant issue, the perception of democratic values ​​and internal labor migration.

The center of influence may shift from France to Germany to unite the central European states: Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary (the so-called Visegrad Group). Austria can join these four states.

The new Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz is close in his views to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is often accused of being populist. The resulting union of euro-skeptics is increasingly resembling a new Austro-Hungary, the report authors say.

Apple goes to second place

American manufacturer of equipment Apple may lose the title of the largest company in the world. According to Saxo Bank, the capitalization of Chinese Internet giant Tencent will double in 2018, and Tencent will overtake Apple at market value.

Photo: Depositphoto

Analysts explain Tencent's possible success by the fact that Beijing is opening its capital markets and carrying out reforms, attracting investor interest. China is the most populous country in the world with a growing level of prosperity, the report's authors note.

Fed and Independence

The US Federal Reserve may become more dependent on the US government in 2018, according to Saxo Bank.

Budget discipline in the US is unimportant, new tax breaks will lead to loss of budget revenues, the report's authors write.

As a result, politicians, in an attempt to find the culprits, may blame everything on the Fed, analysts believe, and the US Treasury will limit the yield of “long” government bonds in order to maintain economic growth and spending at the same level.

Oil yuan

The role of the yuan in oil transactions in 2018 could grow much more than expected. The world's largest oil importer, China, and many commodity producers are increasingly paying each other in yuan.

Next year, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will launch RMB-denominated oil futures. The launch of a new instrument will have serious geopolitical and financial implications, analysts write.

South African Spring

In 2018, there may be a political and economic flourishing of countries located south of the Sahara, similar to the “Arab Spring,” according to Saxo Bank.

The change of power in Zimbabwe, where permanent President Robert Mugabe was forced to resign, will launch a process of democratic change throughout central and southern Africa, the report said.

Africa is beginning to realize its potential, analysts say.

Yen collapse

In 2018, the Japanese national currency rate against the dollar may sharply decline due to rising inflation and bond yields.

At the end of September, the Bank of Japan began targeting the bond yield curve - this measure involves purchasing long-term bonds to keep their yields low.

This regulator policy depends on flexible interest rates and low bond yields around the world, and this condition is unlikely to be met in 2018, analysts at Saxo Bank say.

As a result, the yen will fall in price - the dollar rate in Japan will rise to 150 yen, after which the regulator will launch a policy of “quantitative easing”, and the rate will return to 100 yen, according to the report of the Danish investment bank.

Stock market crash

In 2017, global market volatility was low, which surprised many investors, analysts write. Saxo Bank fears that volatility is simply disguised, and sometime in 2018, a sharp collapse may occur in the markets.

Фото: Depositphotos

Experts note that various stock market indicators are reminiscent of the situation before “Black Monday” in the late 80s, when the US index Dow Jones for the day fell by more than 20%.

According to the report's authors, a similar sharp collapse could occur in 2018 - the S&P 500 index could fall by 25% in one trading day.