How Trump got out of the shatdaun winner

The US federal government (more precisely, only ¼ of the government) was inactive for 36 days. Estimates of this inaction, as expected, vary. In the left camp, the victory is celebrated, and in the right camp, the range of assessments extends from naked bitterness of defeat (the majority) to cautious optimism like “well, we will see who wins” (a minority).

Фото: Depositphotos

But it does not occur to anyone to consider the results of the last battle from a completely different point of view. From the point of view of Trump's victory, however unusual it may sound.

Why is this view not considered? The blame for everything is probably the emotional background of the conflict, that is, the personal confrontation between Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi, who is reveling in her newly acquired power. But let's ask ourselves: would Trump's position change if, instead of Pelosi, there was someone else? Hardly anyone can argue that it is Pelosi who is responsible for Trump’s political moves.

In other words, would Trump go to a partial closure of the government if someone else owned a hammer in the House of Representatives (Republican, Democrat, or someone else — that doesn't matter anymore)? Of course I would. Because its main strategic task is a wall on the southern border. But not just a wall as a barrier, but a wall as a symbol of the sovereignty of the country.

To achieve this goal, Trump needs to drive the opposition into a deliberately uncomfortable position. So uncomfortable that the opposition will begin to seriously think about its strategic role: either a stubborn obstructionism or a constructive opposition.

Who can make Democrats do this? Only public opinion. From this point of view, the opposition of Trump and Pelosi should be considered. Not from the standpoint of the opposition of the gladiator Trump and the gladiator Pelosi, but from the standpoint of winning the sympathies of the spectators of the political Coliseum. And then (seemingly fantastic) the idea of ​​trump's victory immediately moves from the realm of fantasy to the realm of reality.

For about one month, Trump slowly, step by step, squeezed out of the media space all the information garbage that is not related to the problem of illegal immigration. For a month, everything suddenly became secondary - both North Korea, and Syria, and the economy, and trade wars with China, and the unemployment rate, and racial problems. No one is satisfied with the heated debate over the fact that the number of vacant jobs in America has exceeded the number of unemployed. Very few people outside of Washington are interested in the vicissitudes of the investigation of Muller. With the exception of marginal groupings, no one raises the issue of impeaching the president. Everything faded into the background, except the wall.

As a result, Trump skillfully imposed America on its agenda. And as part of this agenda in America, there came a clear understanding that two ideologies clashed in Washington - one wants to turn America into a kind of Venezuela, and the other to build a wall on the southern border. The tasks set by these ideologies are serious strategic goals, and their achievement is the political equivalent of a successful reversal of the Titanic right before the collision with an iceberg.

Thanks to Trump, now no one in America has any doubts about what the positions of the two opposing sides really are.

Фото: Depositphotos

It is now clear to all American citizens that the Republicans 'position is to close the border and open the government, and the Democrats' position is to open the border and close the government.

If someone considers the achievement of this kind of clarity - the task is simple, try yourself to try to deploy a political Titanic. If not on the scale of the whole country, then at least at the level of your family.

In addition, Trump skillfully arranged the scenery for the next stage of political drama. At the same time, he wisely left with him trumps for the final act, either in the form of a declaration of a state of emergency, or the wall was built by the US Army (the law allows this to be done without the consent of Congress). And for democrats and unaware - for some reason they consider the epic with the partial closure of the government advantageous. If for the Democrats the upcoming 21 day of negotiations with Trump is a victory, then for Trump 21 the day of negotiations is the very gun on the wall, which, according to Stanislavsky, must necessarily fire in the third act.

Declaring a state of emergency in America is a fairly frequent thing. President Obama has declared 12 states of emergency, and President Bush Jr. is 13. A state of emergency can only be declared by the president for one year, but, as a rule, all presidents extend their own state of emergency and the state of emergency of their predecessors.

Trump extended all the emergencies declared by Presidents Obama, Bush, and Clinton. In addition, Trump extended the Iranian state of emergency, announced by President Carter. Currently, the US has a 31 state of emergency. For reference, the US Congress has the right to cancel the declaration of a state of emergency only if both houses of Congress vote for two-thirds of its votes.

But the Democrats still haven’t realized what happened to them. It seems that none of them read Machiavelli. After all, they just had to back down and quietly lose one small (only about 0.1% of the US federal budget) political battle over the wall on the border with Mexico, but at the same time save their entire army of supporters, their entire reputation and your political capital. This would enable them to confront Trump in the next stage of political struggle.

But the Democrats went for it. What the Democrats have done is worse than the betrayal of American citizens. This is mistake.

(Note in parentheses that one of the players, Muller, nevertheless understood what was going on and tried to change the course of the information cycle imposed by Trump. Muller loudly arrested Gestapo for a few hours and stopped talking about illegal immigration and the wall. But all for a few hours).

In conclusion, I would like to remind the Democrats one of the most well-known laws of Murphy: "If it seems to you that the situation is improving, it means that you have not noticed something."

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