Research: can warming defeat coronavirus

Edition Fox News tried to find out if there is a chance that with an increase in air temperature, the spread of coronavirus will slow down, as is the case with other respiratory viruses, including influenza.

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A new study showed that coronavirus does not spread as effectively in warmer and wetter regions of the world as in colder regions. Although an early analysis published in the journal Social Science Research Network is still under consideration, it provides an idea of ​​what to expect in the warmer months.

Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology analyzed global cases of the 2019-nCoV virus and found that 90% of infections occurred in areas with air temperatures between 37,4 and 62,6 degrees Fahrenheit (3 - 17 degrees Celsius) and with absolute humidity from 4 to 9 grams per cubic meter. Absolute humidity is determined by the amount of moisture in the air, regardless of temperature.

In countries with an average temperature of more than 64,4 ° F (18 ° C) and an absolute humidity of more than 9 g / m3, the number of cases of coronavirus infection is less than 6% of the total number of cases in the world.

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This suggests that “viral transmission rates are lower in warmer, wetter climates,” the authors write.

Humidity can play a special role here, given that most 2019-nCoV infections have occurred in regions of the world with relatively low humidity.

But this does not mean that with the onset of summer there will be no need for social distance, and people will again gather in bars and at concerts.

The authors of the study write that for most of North America and Europe, the influence of humidity on the distribution of coronavirus will be negligible until June, when the humidity level exceeds 9 g / m3. However, given that in regions with an average temperature of 18 degrees Celsius (64,4 degrees Fahrenheit) after March 15, more than 10 cases of COVID-000 were recorded, the role of increasing air temperature in slowing the spread of the virus can be significant only if higher temperatures.

“Therefore, the effects of rising temperatures will be limited, at least for countries in northern Europe and the northern United States, which have not experienced large increases in temperatures,” the researchers wrote.

Thus, the chances of reducing the spread of COVID-19 due to these natural factors will be limited in these regions.

"I think it's unreasonable at this point to expect the virus to go away with the arrival of the virus," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.

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The spread of some respiratory viruses (including influenza) decreases with high humidity and high temperatures. However, scientists do not fully understand why temperature and humidity so strongly affect the flu and other seasonal viruses.

“If we were to look at this virus under a microscope, we would find that it is surrounded by a microscopic sphere of moisture called a droplet,” Schaffner explained.

“When humidity is low in winter, this droplet tends to evaporate. This makes the virus lighter and can hang in the air for a longer period of time because gravity has a much weaker effect on it, Schaffner said. “But in the summer, when you exhale a viral particle, the surrounding droplet does not evaporate, and gravity removes the virus from the air much faster. In other words, the particle does not float in the air as long as in winter, reducing the likelihood of infection.”

Flu incidence drops to very low levels in the summer, so we usually don't have to worry about it as much during the warmer months. However, according to Schaffner, “we cannot rely only for warmer, wetter months to slow the spread of the virus.”

As reported by ForumDaily:

• The new 2019-nCoV virus was detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019. In 2020, it covered all continents except Antarctica. On March 11, US President Donald Trump imposed a ban on entry from the EU. The ban came into force on Friday, March 13, and will last at least 30 days. In particular, it will concern people who have visited the Schengen area over the past 14 days.
• March 13, Trump introduced a nationwide emergency regime in the US due to coronavirus.
• On March 11, WHO recognized the situation with the coronavirus pandemic, which covered more than 110 countries. Symptoms of Coronavirus COVID-19 Disease Available here.
• Virologist's tips on how to protect yourself from infection - here to register:.
• Taking advantage of the panic in the society because of the epidemic, fraudsters came up with several schemes to deceive victims of personal data and money. The most common ones can be found here.
• Having succumbed to panic due to a state of emergency, Americans are massively buying toilet paperbut they cannot explain why they need it during the epidemic.
• Read all news about coronavirus in our special project.

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