Will you die in the coming year: artificial intelligence can predict death in just one analysis
Artificial Intelligence (AI) can predict a person’s chances of dying within a year by looking at the results electrocardiograms, even if it looks normal for doctors. How this happens remains a mystery. Writes about this New Scientist.
Brandon Fornwalt of the Geisinger Medical Center in Pennsylvania, USA and his colleagues instructed the AI to study 1,77 million electrocardiogram (ECG) results for almost 400 000 people to predict which of them is at risk of dying for a year.
An ECG captures the electrical activity of the heart. Her pattern changes with heart disease, including heart attacks and atrial fibrillation.
The team made two versions of the ECG for the AI: in one, the algorithm was given only raw ECG data, which measures the voltage of the heart. In another case, ECG data was entered in combination with the patient's age and gender.
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They measured the AI's performance using a metric known as AUC, which measures how well the model distinguishes between two groups of people—in this case, patients who died within a year and those who survived. AI consistently scored above 0,85, where an ideal score is 1 and a score of 0,5 indicates no difference between the two groups.
“The AUC for risk assessment models currently used by physicians ranges from 0,65 to 0,8,” Fornwalt says. — Regardless, the voltage-based model was always better than any model of ECG-measured data.”
AI accurately predicted the risk of death even in people whose cardiologists did not find abnormalities in the ECG. Three cardiologists who separately studied the ECG were not able to identify the risk structures detected by AI.
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“This discovery suggests that AI sees things that humans probably can't see, or at least we just ignore it and think it's normal,” Fornwalt says. “AI has the potential to teach us things we may have been misinterpreting for decades.”
It is still unclear which patterns AI uses, which is why some doctors are reluctant to use such algorithms.
The study was presented at scientific sessions of the American Heart Association in Dallas on 16 November.
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