El Nino 2015 will enter the top three of the strongest natural phenomena - ForumDaily
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El Nino 2015 of the year will enter the top three of the strongest natural phenomena

This winter and the next 2016 year may be among the hottest in the history of the Earth. It's all about El Nino: the warm ocean current will be especially strong this winter. In some states, this can lead to drought and natural disasters.

Vox talks in detail about how El Nino acts and how this phenomenon will affect the weather in 2015.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is a natural phenomenon that occurs in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific every 2 – 7 years. When the trade winds, usually blowing from east to west, weaken, the temperature of ocean surface water begins to rise, leading to a number of weather disasters.

El Nino can be strong or weak. Strong El Niño temporarily disrupts habitual weather conditions throughout the world. Usually, the effect of this phenomenon causes some regions (for example, Peru or California) to become wetter, and others (for example, South Asia) to become more dry. Because of these changes, some countries suffer serious damage.

El Nino also removes heat from the deep ocean to the surface. Combined with global warming, this gives rise to the hottest years in history, for example 1998 a year.

El Nino got its name in 1800's from Peruvian fishermen, who were the first to notice unusual warming around Christmas. They called this phenomenon “little boy” or “baby Christ”, which in Spanish sounds like “El Nino”.

What cataclysms can El Nino cause?

The previous strong El Nino was in 1997 – 1998 and resulted in 23 000 deaths. The damage from this phenomenon is estimated at $ 35 billion. It is likely that El Nino this year will lead to the same catastrophes.

Back in March, scientists said that a weak El Niño had formed in the Pacific, and many experts believed that it would disappear in the summer. However, El Nino, on the contrary, increased, and the temperature of the ocean in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean began to grow rapidly. According to some predictions, this could turn into one of the strongest El Nino in history, when he reaches his peak in the fall or winter of this year.

 

If this happens, the nations of the world need to be prepared. In the past, strong El Niño led to serious cataclysms in different countries. For example, in Australia, due to heat and drought, wheat harvest has decreased and fires have spread. In India, the weather can also become drier and hotter, which greatly harm agriculture. In Peru, floods and torrents can begin that destroy homes and cause cholera outbreaks. In 1997, a drought brought to Indonesia by El Nino caused massive fires in the forests, the smoke from which completely stopped Singapore’s life.

Nevertheless, each time El Nino brings different climatic changes, so it is impossible to accurately predict what kind of weather disasters it will cause this time and how they will affect the lives of people.

How does El Nino

To understand how El Nino acts, you need to look at how the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean looks like in normal conditions.

Usually in the tropical Pacific Ocean there are strong trade winds that carry the warm ocean waters from east to west, where they gather near Indonesia. At this time, in the east, along South America, the cold waters in the depths of the ocean rise closer to the surface, cooling the area next to Peru.

This is how it happens:

Thus, under normal conditions, the sea level is closer to Indonesia about half a meter higher than near Peru, and the temperature of surface waters near Indonesia is about 8 ° C higher. The difference in temperature forms a convection loop in the atmosphere, which, in turn, increases the trade winds.

All this is reflected not only in the ocean. Since the Pacific Ocean occupies a vast area, the processes occurring in it affect the global climate. A large amount of warm water near Indonesia raises the air and causes rain in this region. As a result of these processes, a jet stream is formed that regulates the weather around the world.

However, the emergence of El Nino changes these processes. Every few years, trade winds weaken. So far, there is no consensus on why this is happening.

As soon as the winds begin to weaken, the warm water accumulated near Indonesia begins to return to the east, pulled up by gravity. In addition, a layer of water in the ocean, called a thermocline, begins to descend. As a result, the amount of cold water that comes to the surface off the coast of South America begins to decrease. Water near Peru is getting warmer. Here’s how it happens:

The temperature of the surface waters of the eastern and central part of the Pacific Ocean begins to rise, due to which the trade winds weaken even more. Moving eastward, these warm streams of water bring with them showers. That is why El Nino usually brings dry weather in the region of Indonesia and Australia and rainfall in the area of ​​Peru (or California).

Scientists usually understand that El Niño current occurs when surface water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise 0,5 ° C above normal levels for three months in a row and when the corresponding atmospheric indicators and showers appear.

El Nino can bring a variety of disasters, especially in winter.

Some benefit from El Nino

This is not to say that El Nino brings some catastrophes. Some countries benefit from its appearance.

According to a study by scientists from the University of Cambridge, the effects of El Niño usually have a bad effect on the economies of Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa. This may be due to a wide variety of factors, including hurricanes, reduced yields, and fires.

However, El Nino also typically benefits the economies of Argentina, Canada, Mexico and the United States, at least in the short term. For example, the US is less likely to attack tornadoes, and in places where there is not enough rain, for example, in California, more rain falls.

Perhaps the United States of El Nino will bring the necessary rainwater this winter to alleviate the drought in California (although it also faces deadly landslides and flooding). Historically, El Nino brings warm winters to the United States.

2015 and 2016 years may be the hottest in history.

Due to global warming, the temperature of the Earth’s surface is gradually increasing. However, this trend takes place differently in different years. The years in which El Niño appeared were usually hotter, while the years when the opposite phenomenon was observed — La Nina, on the contrary, were colder.

Due to greenhouse gas emissions, the temperature of the Earth’s surface is increasing. However, more than 90% of this excess heat is absorbed by the oceans. Therefore, any interaction of the oceans with the atmosphere, which occurs, in particular, in the case of El Nino, will greatly change the temperature. That is why the strong El Niño, combined with the effects of global warming, made 1998 the hottest year in history.

Given that 2014 has become the hottest year without additional natural phenomena, and 2015 has already broken some of the 2014 records, with the help of El Nino it can become even hotter.

Previously, the "Forum" reported that El Nino brought first victims in california. A landslide in the Tehachapi Mountains, provoked by El Nino, claimed the lives of an Ohio resident. Trying to get out of the quagmire, he died in front of his friend, with whom, on the eve of the flood, he went to rest on the nature.

In the U.S. storm snow winter precipitation rain cyclone El Niño
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