Israeli historian predicted how the world will live in 2050

Israeli historian Yuval Noi Harari has released a new book - “21 lesson for the XXI century”. Harari’s previous work Sapiens: A Brief History of Humanity has become the New York Times bestseller and has received several awards. If the author’s past books explained the history of mankind, in the new work he describes what people should expect from this century. Edition Vector briefly retold the predictions of the historian.

Photo: Facebook Publishing Sinbad

About the lack of confidence in anything

People have never been able to predict the future accurately. But today it is more difficult than ever before. Technology allows us to design our body, brain and thoughts. Therefore, we can no longer be sure of anything, even in what was previously stable and eternal.

A thousand years ago, in 1018, people did not know much about the future. But they were confident in the fundamental features of humanity, which remained unshakable. If you lived in China in 1018, you knew that by 1050, Sun's empire could disintegrate, the Khitan tribes could attack from the north, and the plague kill millions.

However, it was obvious that even in 1050, most people would still work as farmers and weavers, rulers would also rely on the people to staff armies and government institutions, men would dominate women, life expectancy would be around 40 years, and human the body will remain exactly the same.

Therefore, poor Chinese parents taught their children to grow rice or weave silk, and richer families taught their boys calligraphy, reading Confucian classics or battles on horses. They taught girls to be modest and flexible housewives. It was obvious that they would need the same skills in 1050.

But today we have no idea how China or the rest of the world will look like in 2050. We do not know how people will earn money, how armies and state institutions will function, and what will be their attitude towards gender. Some people are likely to live much longer than they do now, and the human body can experience an unprecedented revolution thanks to bioengineering and a direct connection between the brain and computers. Most of the things children learn today will be irrelevant in 2050.

Фото: Depositphotos

About the information

In the 21st century, we are overwhelmed with vast amounts of information, and even the censors cannot block it, as before. Instead, they are busy spreading misinformation or distracting us with unimportant things. If you live in a provincial Mexican town and you own a smartphone, you can spend a lot of time reading Wikipedia, watching TED videos, or taking online courses. No authority will be able to ban all information that she does not like.

On the other hand, it is very easy to overwhelm people with contradictory reports or distracting maneuvers. People around the world are in one click from the latest news about the bombings of Alleppo or melting glaciers in the Arctic, but there was so much conflicting information that it’s very difficult to decide what to believe. In addition, an incalculable number of other things in one click from a person, so it is very difficult for him to concentrate. And when politics or science becomes too complicated, it is easier for people to switch their attention to videos with funny cats, gossip about celebrities or pornography.

Фото: Depositphotos

On education

In such a world, the last thing a teacher should give to students is more information. They already have an excessive amount of data. People should learn to get meaning from information, to see the difference between what is important and what is not. They have to put pieces of information into a big picture of the world.

In truth, such a model is the ideal of Western liberal education, but so far many schools have failed to come close to this. Teachers allowed themselves to encourage students to “think for themselves.” Because of the fear of becoming authoritarian, liberal schools have acquired the fear of big narratives. It seems to them that if you give students arrays of information and a bit of freedom, they will create their own picture of the world. And if they do not succeed, time is still enough to come up with a good system in the future.

But there is no more time. The decisions that we will take in the next few generations will be fundamental. If this generation lacks an exhaustive understanding of space, the future will be decided in a random order.

In addition to information, most schools focus too much on providing students with a set of pre-established skills. For example, solve differential equations, write in C ++, identify chemicals in a test tube, or speak Chinese.

But since we have no idea what the world and the labor market will look like in 2050, we don’t really know what specific knowledge we will need. You can invest a lot in teaching C ++ or Chinese children to find out that in 2050, artificial intelligence writes codes much better than people, and the new Google Translate application translates the conversation into perfect Mandarin, Cantonese or Hakka, even if your knowledge ends with “Neither Hao.

So what do you need to learn? Many teachers argue that schools should switch to the “Four K” training — critical thinking, collaboration, communication, and creativity. Schools should play down technical skills and focus on general life skills. The most important will be the ability to overcome changes, learn new things and maintain mental balance in unknown situations. To cope with the world in 2050, you need not only to invent new ideas or products - among other things, you need to rethink yourself again and again.

Фото: Depositphotos

About future

In 1848, the Communist Party’s manifesto proclaimed that “everything settled will collapse.” However, Marx and Enegels mainly thought about social and economic structures. To 2048, physical and cognitive structures also melt in the air or in a cloud of information.

At 1848, millions of people lost their jobs in villages, farms and went to big cities to work in a factory. But when they reached the cities, they hardly changed their gender. And when people found work at a textile factory, they expected to remain in this profession until the end of their working life.

Before 2048, people may have to cope with migrations in cyberspace, with volatile gender identities, and new sensitivity experiences generated by computer implants. Let's say they will find both work and meaning in the design of fashion for VR games. But after a decade, not only this profession, but all work that requires a certain level of artistic creativity, can take over artificial intelligence.

By the 25 age on a dating site, you write in the column about yourself “25 is a heterosexual year old woman. I live in London and I work in a clothing store. ” In 35 years, you indicate that “you are a person without a specific gender, you experience constant age adjustments. Your neocrtex activity mainly occurs in the virtual world of the New Cosmos, and your life mission is to create something that no fashion designer has created. ”

In 45 years, both your dates and your self-determination are far in the past. You just wait for the algorithm to find (or create) the perfect match for you. As for fashion design, the algorithms will so irreversibly surpass you, that the memories of your previous achievements will bring you more shame than pride.

But do not take this script literally. No one can predict the changes that await us in the future.

Any script is far from the truth. If someone describes to you the middle of the XXI century as science fiction, most likely it will be a lie. But if someone describes you to the middle of the XXI, and it will not sound like science fiction - then this is definitely a lie. We cannot be confident in concrete facts, but the changes themselves are the only reliable fact.

By the middle of the 21st century, permanent changes and a long life will make the traditional model (in which people learn half of their lives and half apply what they learned in their work) outdated. The habitual way of life will fall apart, there will be less and less communication between life periods. The question “Who am I” will become more complex and pressing than ever before.

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