The cryptocurrency boom, the decline of plastic money: financial trends that will change the world by 2030

In the new decade, we are waiting for the weakening of the monetary system, the boom of cryptocurrencies and drones, the decline of plastic money, the generational conflict, the demand for philosophers. What else? DW invites you to familiarize yourself with the analytical forecast from Deutsche Bank.

“If the 2010s taught us anything, it is that we cannot be guided by the trends of the past ten years when assessing the prospects for the coming decade,” says the foreword to the collection of forecasts “The World in 2030”, published at the end of January by the Deutsche Think Tank Bank (DB Research) in Frankfurt am Main.

Weakening world currencies not secured by gold

Having reached this conclusion, a multinational team of analysts set out to abandon simple extrapolation of existing trends into the future and present “unusual thoughts” about possible future turns in the socio-political and economic development of the planet. The result was 80 forecasts presented on 24 pages, although in fact there are even more of them, since each article contains a whole series of predictions or assumptions.

Since it was banking analysts who worked on the collection, it is quite natural that several articles relate to the financial and monetary sphere. The very first forecast in the collection states that by the end of the 2020s, the forces supporting the current global monetary system, which is based on fiduciary or fiat money, may “finally weaken.”

This is money not backed by gold or silver, the value of which is determined solely by faith in the ability of the states and central banks that issued it to guarantee its value and protect it from depreciation during inflation. However, the record debt accumulated by governments around the world is eroding confidence in the system. Therefore, DB Research predicts an increase in demand for “alternative currencies” - gold or cryptocurrencies - by 2030.

Cryptocurrencies will become "cash of the 21st century"

They are the subject of a separate article with a forecast: this decade will see a massive proliferation of cryptocurrencies, which will no longer be just an addition to existing monetary units and will eventually turn into “cash of the 21st century.”

The main barriers to virtual money come from regulators, but that could change. The position of the two most populous countries in the world - China and India - will be decisive. Their governments, the article notes, have just now begun to reconsider their negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies.

Modern society is moving toward non-cash payments, it is noted in another article, but they can disappear soon, such is the forecast, not just cash, but plastic. Due to the rapid development and growth in popularity of payment systems using smartphones, which is clearly illustrated by the example of China, payment cards will simply become unnecessary, while the circulation of banknotes and coins will continue for various reasons.

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A decade of electric vehicles but not autonomous driving

Several articles are devoted to technology trends. Thus, DB Research predicts the rapid spread of electric vehicles over the next decade, but not autonomous driving. Unmanned technologies, “despite the current hype,” will not yet have time to overcome numerous obstacles to successful commercialization by 2030. At the same time, electric vehicles will account for a fifth of global passenger car sales in the 2020s, and half by 2040.

By about 2030, even the century-old dream of flying cars may come true, experts at Deutsche Bank admit. But of what they are absolutely sure: there will be a boom in commercial unmanned aerial vehicles, so that by the end of the decade, the United States alone can fly 6,5 million drones.

This technology raises certain legal problems, but as soon as the society is convinced of its obvious advantages (for example, unloading roads or urgent delivery of drugs), it will begin to demand state support for drones.

Artificial Intelligence Needs Moral Assistants

Several articles at once predict various effects from the development of the “biggest technology of the 2020s” - artificial intelligence (AI). Perhaps the most unexpected forecast: the increasingly widespread introduction of this technology will create an increased demand for graduates of philosophical and linguistic faculties. Reason: "AI's surprising weakness in making ethical decisions."

DB Research believes that “the greatest challenge in the future development of AI will be the task of answering moral questions that cannot be answered, while taking into account different moral and cultural norms.”

Therefore, both business and legislators will need humanists - specialists with both a philosophical education and mentality, and the ability to sense the subtlest linguistic and cultural nuances.

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Strengthening populists, doubts in the European Union and the conflict of generations

The collection “The World in 2030” naturally contains a number of socio-political forecasts. Its authors self-critically note that few were able to predict the key trends of the past decade: the counter-reaction to globalization and migration, as well as the revival of the ideas of the nation state. Although now, looking back, their harbingers are clearly visible.

The article “Changes in political trends that we will miss” lists so far underestimated topics that in the new decade, at least in democratic industrial countries, can decide the outcome of elections. This is, firstly, the high cost of real estate and the lack of affordable housing, which is pushing young people into the hands of populist politicians who promise to tax the rich, control housing prices or even nationalize them.

The second underestimated topic in the article is the declining trust of residents in the European Union and its institutions. This could lead to further strengthening of the positions of Eurosceptics and centrifugal forces in EU countries, aggravate the division of society and strengthen separatist tendencies in certain regions. Closely related to the second is the third topic: the continued disastrous economic situation in the countries of Southern Europe. The rise of populists, who have already formed governments in Greece and Italy, could be “the beginning of a much larger wave.”

But perhaps the main socio-political theme of the decade in developed countries, according to DB Research, could be a growing generational conflict. The aging of society leads to the fact that there are more and more people among voters of pre-retirement and retirement age, and they support those politicians who promise them generous social benefits and serve their ideas about life.

As a result, the gap between generations is widening, as already indicated, for example, by the distribution of votes in the Brexit referendum and in the election of President Trump. The growing feeling of alienation from political processes among younger generations should not be underestimated, the article notes, because “they can strike back.”

Reinforcing a new type of trade union and a 6-hour day

Young people will be able to make themselves known, in particular, through trade unions, the “return” of which DB Research predicts in another article. But these will no longer be the classic trade unions that represented mainly industrial workers of the 20th century.

Now young workers in the digital industries will become more united and promote their demands, and it will be digital technologies that they will use to organize themselves, vote, collect signatures, submit petitions or coordinate campaigns.

Another forecast: the gradual global strengthening of the position of employees (including due to the growing shortage of young qualified personnel in aging societies) could lead to the fact that in the 2020s the requirement of a 6-hour working day will be implemented, although introducing it will most likely be started selectively. Employers themselves will benefit from such a measure, since their employees will be sick less often, and labor productivity and customer satisfaction will increase, the World in 2030 book predicts.

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