Bloomberg told how Putin decided to invade Ukraine and why he does not intend to retreat from it

Nearly eight weeks after the attack on Ukraine, military casualties are mounting and Russia is facing unprecedented international isolation. A number of critics within the Russian government began to doubt Putin's decision to go to war, reports with the BBC.

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A growing number of senior Russian officials are coming to believe that continuing the war in Ukraine is dooming Russia to years of isolation, paralyzing its economy and putting its security at risk, according to Bloomberg. However, the interlocutors of the publication see no chance that Vladimir Putin will change course. The Russian president, they say, is increasingly relying on a shrinking circle of hardline advisers and rebuffs attempts to warn him of the consequences of the war.

Two Bloomberg sources claim that the decision to invade Ukraine was made by Putin together with several “hawks,” including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev.

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In the weeks since the invasion began, Putin's circle of advisers and contacts has narrowed even further from the limited group of hardliners with whom he regularly consulted in the past, according to the agency.

“A small but growing number of senior Kremlin insiders quietly question his decision to go to war,” the agency writes.

"Catastrophic Mistake"

The ranks of critics within the Russian government remain limited and dispersed in senior positions in government and state business - they believe the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back years, according to Bloomberg, citing 10 people with knowledge of the situation. They all spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions.

So far, these people do not see any chance that Putin will change his course. As they rely more and more on a shrinking circle of hardline advisers, the Russian president is rebuffing attempts by other officials to warn him of the damaging economic and political costs, they say.

Some Bloomberg interlocutors said they increasingly share US intelligence officials' fears that Putin may resort to limited use of nuclear weapons if he fails in what he sees as his historic mission.

“To be sure, Putin's war remains deeply supported by much of the Russian elite, and many insiders publicly and even privately support the Kremlin's narrative that conflict with the West was inevitable and that the economy is adapting to the sweeping sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. - the article says. “And public support remains strong as the initial shock and damage from sanctions has given way to a kind of surreal stability in Russia.”

Words about the inevitability of a war between Russia and Ukraine are regularly heard in Putin's speeches.

However, more and more senior Russian officials believe that Putin's commitment to continuing the war will doom Russia to years of isolation and heightened tensions, leaving its economy paralyzed, security jeopardized, and global influence weakened, concludes Bloomberg.

“We tried to explain”

Senior officials have tried to explain to Putin that the economic impact of the sanctions would be devastating, canceling out the two decades of growth and higher living standards that the Russian president achieved during his rule, according to the agency's interlocutors.

Putin, they say, shrugged off those warnings, saying that although Russia would pay a huge price, the West left him no choice but to wage war.

Two days ago, Putin said that the attempt at an “economic blitzkrieg” against Russia had failed. “The calculation was to quickly undermine the financial and economic situation in our country, provoke panic in the markets, the collapse of the banking system, and a large-scale shortage of goods in stores,” he said on April 18 at a meeting on the socio-economic situation in the country. “We can already confidently say that such a policy towards Russia has failed, the economic blitzkrieg strategy has failed.”

Putin remains confident that the public supports him, and Russians are willing to endure years of hardship for the sake of his vision of national greatness, his sources tell Bloomberg. The agency recalls that with the help of strict control measures adopted by the Central Bank, the ruble has recovered most of its initial losses - and although inflation has risen sharply, economic shocks remain limited for now.

Putin is determined to continue the war - even as the Kremlin has had to scale back its ambitions, abandoning its takeover of most of Ukraine and refocusing on the grueling battle for the Donbass.

Those who disagree with Putin's line see no signs that he is willing to consider ending the invasion given the casualties - or making the serious concessions needed to achieve a ceasefire.

“Given his total dominance in the political system, alternative views are voiced only in private,” the agency writes. In his assessment, limited information contributed to the Kremlin’s miscalculation in the first days of the offensive.

Billionaire Roman Abramovich, who helped organize Russian-Ukrainian talks, was supposed to dispel Putin's confidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would leave the country as soon as the invasion began, according to Bloomberg sources.

Back in mid-March, sanctioned billionaire Mikhail Fridman explained in an interview with Bloomberg why no one in Russia would dare publicly condemn the war. “The distance between Mr. Putin and anyone else is like the distance between the Earth and space,” he said. “To say anything against the war to Putin would be tantamount to suicide for anyone.”

Billionaire Oleg Deripaska called the war “madness” at the end of March, saying that “peace, unfortunately, will not come in the coming months,” recalls Bloomberg. The founder of Tinkoff Bank, Oleg Tinkov, spoke out in even harsher terms the day before against the war and those who support it, and also criticized the Russian army.

Bloomberg recalls that only one senior official "publicly broke with the Kremlin over the invasion" - Anatoly Chubais, who resigned as Putin's special envoy for sustainable development and flew to Istanbul. However, Chubais refused to make any public statements about his decision.

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Others who wanted to leave, including Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, were told they had to stay to help cope with the economic fallout, according to Bloomberg. Even earlier, the agency reported that Nabiullina tried to resign after the invasion began, but Putin refused to do so. After this publication, the Central Bank stated that the information about Nabiullina’s desire to leave her post is not true. Senior officials condemned those who left the country as “traitors,” according to Bloomberg.

Some members of the elite are pushing for an even tougher line, the agency believes, and recalls that when Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stood up for TV presenter Ivan Urgant, who left Russia, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, whose troops are fighting in Ukraine, criticized Peskov for lack of patriotism.

“There is no room for disagreement or discussion, everyone should just get on with it and follow the president’s orders, and as long as Putin keeps the situation under control, people will follow him,” Tatyana Stanovaya, head of the R.Politik project, assessed the situation.

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